Assessing water quality in the Pearl River for the last decade based on clustering: Characteristic, evolution and policy implications.

The Pearl River (PR) is China's second-largest river, playing a crucial role in regulating and supplying water in the southeast. However, for the last decade, the PR has been experiencing water quality deterioration due to population growth, rapid economic development, and diverse human activities, particularly in its delta areas. This study analyzed the characteristics and evolution of eight water quality variables, including pH values (pH), water temperature (WT), dissolved oxygen (DO), five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), permanganate index (PI), total phosphorus (TP), ammonia nitrogen (NHN), and fluoride (F), which were monitored monthly at 16 water quality monitoring stations from January 2009 to August 2019. Overall, annual average BOD and F concentrations met Class I water quality standards, while TP and NHN conformed to lower standards. The cluster results showed noticeable differences for parameter grouping (DO-organic parameters-nutrient and solutes), seasonal variation (wet and dry), and water quality status (contaminated-remediating-fine). The Water Quality Index (WQI) ranged from 8.3 ("very poor") to 91.7 ("excellent") in the entire basin from 2009 to 2019, and NHN-DO based WQImins were identified using the All-Subsets Linear Regression method. The fitting results of the Generalized Additive Models displayed that the deviance explained by natural factors ranged from 37.2% to 61.3%, while the socioeconomic explanation exceeded 70%. The WQImin component evolution (2003-2019) of Shenzhen River estuary, the most important part of the PR estuary, agreed with key parameter variations in heterogeneous clusters in the entire basin. Moreover, Shenzhen's water quality remediation applications indicated that reasonable-efficient-powerful efforts and support from governments could accelerate recovery. For the management departments, consistent measures should be strictly enforced, and elaborate regionalized management based on clusters could be attempted to maintain excellent water quality.