School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, PR China.
Department of Methodology and Statistics, Tilburg University, Tilburg, The Netherlands.
Psychiatry Res. 2023 Oct;328:115433. doi: 10.1016/j.psychres.2023.115433. Epub 2023 Aug 27.
This study aims to estimate the global, regional, and national burden of depressive disorders in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. All data were obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Age-period-cohort (APC) modeling was conducted to disentangle age, period, and birth cohort effects on depression incidence. We compared these estimates across regions classified based on their socio-demographic index (SDI). The Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) was calculated for each of the 204 countries and territories to identify the top five countries with increased depression incidence (Spain, Mexico, Malaysia, the United States of America, and Uruguay) and the top five countries with decreased depression incidence (Singapore, Estonia, Cuba, Maldives, and Sri Lanka). The results from APC analysis indicate that although depression incidence has decreased globally, the incidence rate in high SDI regions is still increasing, especially in the younger generations. Findings suggest that currently some populations are in need of receiving more psychological support (i.e., individuals born after 1950s in high SDI regions; males in middle SDI regions). Forthcoming studies could corroborate our findings using individual-level data which may guide future prevention and intervention of depression in high-risk populations or regions.
本研究旨在估计 204 个国家和地区 1990 年至 2019 年期间抑郁障碍的全球、区域和国家负担。所有数据均来自 2019 年全球疾病负担(GBD)研究。采用年龄-时期-队列(APC)模型来解析抑郁发生率的年龄、时期和出生队列效应。我们根据社会人口指数(SDI)对这些地区进行了分类,并对这些估计值进行了比较。对 204 个国家和地区中的每一个都计算了估计年变化百分比(EAPC),以确定抑郁发生率增加的前五个国家(西班牙、墨西哥、马来西亚、美利坚合众国和乌拉圭)和抑郁发生率降低的前五个国家(新加坡、爱沙尼亚、古巴、马尔代夫和斯里兰卡)。APC 分析的结果表明,尽管全球范围内抑郁发生率有所下降,但高 SDI 地区的发病率仍在上升,尤其是在年轻一代中。研究结果表明,目前一些人群需要得到更多的心理支持(即在高 SDI 地区出生于 20 世纪 50 年代以后的个体;中 SDI 地区的男性)。未来的研究可以使用个体水平的数据来验证我们的发现,这可能有助于为高风险人群或地区制定未来的抑郁预防和干预措施。
PNAS Nexus. 2025-7-22