Historical emission and reduction of VOCs from the petroleum refining industry and their potential for secondary pollution formation in Guangdong, China.

China became the world leader in crude oil processing capacity in 2021. However, petroleum refining generates significant volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, and the composite source profile, source-specific emission factors, and emission inventories of VOCs in the petroleum refining industry remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on Guangdong, China's major province for crude oil processing, and systematically evaluated the historical emissions and reduction of VOCs in the petroleum refining industry from 2001 to 2020. We accomplished this by establishing local source-specific emission factors and composite source profiles. Finally, we quantitatively assessed the potential impact of these emissions on ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation. Our results revealed that VOC emissions from the petroleum refining industry in Guangdong followed an increasing-then-decreasing trend from 2001 to 2020, peaking at 37.3 Gg in 2016 and declining to 18.7 Gg in 2020. Storage tanks and wastewater collection and treatment remained the two largest sources, accounting for 41.9 %-53.4 % and 20.6 %-27.5 % of total emissions, respectively. Initially, Guangzhou and Maoming made the most significant contributions, with Huizhou becoming a notable contributor after 2008. Emission reduction efforts for VOCs in Guangdong's petroleum refining industry began showing results in 2017, with an average annual VOC emission reduction of 21.5 Gg from 2017 to 2020 compared to the unabated scenario. Storage tanks, wastewater collection and treatment, and loading operations were the primary sources of emission reduction, with significant contributions from Maoming, Huizhou, and Guangzhou. Alkanes made the largest contribution to VOC emissions, while alkenes/alkynes and aromatics comprised the most significant portions of ozone formation potential (OFP) and secondary organic aerosol formation potential (SOAP). We also estimated VOC emissions and reduction from petroleum refining for China from 2001 to 2020, and measures such as "one enterprise, one policy" and deep control strategies could reduce emissions by at least 103.9 Gg.