Black Bryan A, Pearl Jessie K, Pearson Charlotte L, Pringle Patrick T, Frank David C, Page Morgan T, Buckley Brendan M, Cook Edward R, Harley Grant L, King Karen J, Hughes Jonathan F, Reynolds David J, Sherrod Brian L
Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85701, USA.
U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Sci Adv. 2023 Sep 29;9(39):eadh4973. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adh4973. Epub 2023 Sep 27.
Compound earthquakes involving simultaneous ruptures along multiple faults often define a region's upper threshold of maximum magnitude. Yet, the potential for linked faulting remains poorly understood given the infrequency of these events in the historic era. Geological records provide longer perspectives, although temporal uncertainties are too broad to clearly pinpoint single multifault events. Here, we use dendrochronological dating and a cosmogenic radiation pulse to constrain the death dates of earthquake-killed trees along two adjacent fault zones near Seattle, Washington to within a 6-month period between the 923 and 924 CE growing seasons. Our narrow constraints conclusively show linked rupturing that occurred either as a single composite earthquake of estimated magnitude 7.8 or as a closely spaced double earthquake sequence with estimated magnitudes of 7.5 and 7.3. These scenarios, which are not recognized in current hazard models, increase the maximum earthquake size needed for seismic preparedness and engineering design within the Puget Sound region of >4 million residents.
涉及沿多条断层同时破裂的复合地震通常定义了一个地区最大震级的上限。然而,鉴于这些事件在历史时期的发生频率较低,对连锁断层作用的可能性仍知之甚少。地质记录提供了更长的时间视角,尽管时间上的不确定性太大,无法明确确定单一的多断层事件。在这里,我们利用树木年代学测年和宇宙成因辐射脉冲,将华盛顿州西雅图附近两条相邻断层带上因地震死亡树木的死亡日期限制在公元923年至924年生长季节之间的6个月内。我们狭窄的限制条件确凿地表明,连锁破裂要么是一次估计震级为7.8的单一复合地震,要么是一次估计震级为7.5和7.3的紧密间隔的双地震序列。这些目前在灾害模型中未被识别的情况,增加了普吉特海湾地区400多万居民进行地震防备和工程设计所需的最大地震规模。