建立分化型甲状腺癌的预测列线图：一项基于住院患者的回顾性研究。
Establishment of a predictive nomogram for differentiated thyroid cancer: an inpatient-based retrospective study.
机构信息
Department of Endocrinology, Peking University International Hospital, Beijing, China.
Department of General Surgery, Peking University International Hospital, Beijing, China.
出版信息
Endokrynol Pol. 2023;74(6). doi: 10.5603/ep.97087. Epub 2023 Nov 23.
INTRODUCTION
Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the most common malignant tumour of the endocrine system. The aim of this study was to establish a nomogram for simply and effectively predicting DTC.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
464 inpatients who underwent thyroid nodule surgery were retrospectively analysed. Univariate logistic regression and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyse the risk factors of DTC. A nomogram was constructed for predicting DTC.
RESULTS
In this study, multivariate logistic regression found that female sex, age < 55 years, solid composition, hypoechogenicity, irregular margin, microcalcification, taller-than-wide, and cervical lymphadenopathy were independent risk factors for DTC. The area the curve (AUC) of the nomogram model indicated an excellent predictive performance of 0.920 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.888-0.952]. The best threshold for predicting DTC was 52.4%, with sensitivity and specificity of 91.9% and 81.0%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
we provided a simple, noninvasive, and accurate model for clinicians to predict DTC.
简介
分化型甲状腺癌（DTC）是内分泌系统最常见的恶性肿瘤。本研究旨在建立一种简单有效地预测 DTC 的列线图。
材料与方法
回顾性分析 464 例行甲状腺结节手术的住院患者。采用单因素 logistic 回归和多因素 logistic 回归分析 DTC 的危险因素。构建 DTC 预测列线图。
结果
本研究中，多因素 logistic 回归发现女性、年龄<55 岁、实性成分、低回声、不规则边界、微钙化、纵横比>1 和颈部淋巴结病是 DTC 的独立危险因素。列线图模型的曲线下面积（AUC）表明其具有优异的预测性能，为 0.920[95%置信区间（CI）：0.888-0.952]。预测 DTC 的最佳阈值为 52.4%，灵敏度和特异性分别为 91.9%和 81.0%。
结论
我们为临床医生提供了一种简单、无创、准确的预测 DTC 的模型。
Zotero 插件