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中国氮磷耦合循环网络恢复力的下降需要紧急行动。

Decreasing resilience of China's coupled nitrogen-phosphorus cycling network requires urgent action.

作者信息

Luo Zimeng, Yu Yadong, Kharrazi Ali, Fath Brian D, Matsubae Kazuyo, Liang Sai, Chen Dingjiang, Zhu Bing, Ma Tieju, Hu Shanying

机构信息

Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, P. R. China.

School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai, P. R. China.

出版信息

Nat Food. 2024 Jan;5(1):48-58. doi: 10.1038/s43016-023-00889-5. Epub 2024 Jan 2.

Abstract

The coupled nature of the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling networks is of critical importance for sustainable food systems. Here we use material flow and ecological network analysis methods to map the N-P-coupled cycling network in China and evaluate its resilience. Results show a drop in resilience between 1980 and 2020, with further decreases expected by 2060 across different socio-economic pathways. Under a clean energy scenario with additional N and P demand, the resilience of the N-P-coupled cycling network would suffer considerably, especially in the N layer. China's socio-economic system may also see greater N emissions to the environment, thus disturbing the N cycle and amplifying the conflict between energy and food systems given the scarcity of P. Our findings on scenario-specific synergies and trade-offs can aid the management of N- and P-cycling networks in China by reducing chemical fertilizer use and food waste, for example.

摘要

氮(N)循环网络与磷(P)循环网络的耦合性质对于可持续粮食系统至关重要。在此,我们运用物质流和生态网络分析方法绘制中国的氮磷耦合循环网络,并评估其恢复力。结果显示,1980年至2020年间恢复力有所下降,预计到2060年,在不同社会经济路径下恢复力还会进一步降低。在有额外氮磷需求的清洁能源情景下,氮磷耦合循环网络的恢复力将受到极大影响,尤其是在氮层。鉴于磷的稀缺性,中国的社会经济系统可能还会向环境排放更多氮,从而扰乱氮循环,加剧能源与粮食系统之间的冲突。我们关于特定情景下协同效应和权衡取舍的研究结果,例如通过减少化肥使用和食物浪费,有助于中国氮磷循环网络的管理。

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