Stronger increases but greater variability in global mangrove productivity compared to that of adjacent terrestrial forests.

Mangrove forests are a highly productive ecosystem with important potential to offset anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Mangroves are expected to respond differently to climate change compared to terrestrial forests owing to their location in the tidal environment and unique ecophysiological characteristics, but the magnitude of difference remains uncertain at the global scale. Here we use satellite observations to examine mean trends and interannual variability in the productivity of global mangrove forests and nearby terrestrial evergreen broadleaf forests from 2001 to 2020. Although both types of ecosystem experienced significant recent increases in productivity, mangroves exhibited a stronger increasing trend and greater interannual variability in productivity than evergreen broadleaf forests on three-quarters of their co-occurring coasts. The difference in productivity trends is attributed to the stronger CO fertilization effect on mangrove photosynthesis, while the discrepancy in interannual variability is attributed to the higher sensitivities to variations in precipitation and sea level. Our results indicate that mangroves will have a faster increase in productivity than terrestrial forests in a CO-rich future but may suffer more from deficits in water availability, highlighting a key difference between terrestrial and tidal ecosystems in their responses to climate change.