权衡疫苗接种的益处:一种策略。
Balancing the benefits of vaccination: An strategy.
作者信息
Ribeiro de Almeida Pedro, Hirata Sanches Vitor, Goldman Carla
机构信息
Instituto de Física, Departamento de Física Geral-Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo-SP 05508-090, Brasil.
出版信息
PNAS Nexus. 2024 Feb 26;3(3):pgae087. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae087. eCollection 2024 Mar.
The Covid-19 pandemic revealed the difficulties of vaccinating a population under the circumstances marked by urgency and limited availability of doses while balancing benefits associated with distinct guidelines satisfying specific ethical criteria. We offer a vaccination strategy that may be useful in this regard. It relies on the mathematical concept of envy-freeness. We consider finding balance by allocating the resource among individuals that seem heterogeneous concerning the direct and indirect benefits of vaccination, depending on age. The proposed strategy adapts a constructive approach in the literature based on Sperner's Lemma to point out an approximate division of doses guaranteeing that both benefits are optimized each time a batch becomes available. Applications using data about population age distributions from diverse countries suggest that, among other features, this strategy maintains the desired balance, throughout the entire vaccination period. We discuss complementary aspects of the method in the context of epidemiological models of age-stratified Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) type.
新冠疫情揭示了在紧迫且疫苗剂量有限的情况下为人群接种疫苗的困难,同时还要在符合特定伦理标准的不同指导方针所带来的益处之间取得平衡。我们提供了一种在这方面可能有用的疫苗接种策略。它依赖于无嫉妒的数学概念。我们考虑通过在个体之间分配资源来找到平衡,这些个体在疫苗接种的直接和间接益处方面似乎因年龄而异。所提出的策略采用了文献中基于斯佩纳引理的一种建设性方法,以指出剂量的近似分配,确保每次有一批疫苗可用时,两种益处都能得到优化。使用来自不同国家的人口年龄分布数据的应用表明,除其他特征外,该策略在整个疫苗接种期间都能保持所需的平衡。我们在年龄分层的易感 - 感染 - 康复(SIR)类型的流行病学模型背景下讨论该方法的补充方面。