Zhang S, Zhang H, Zheng W L, Wang D Z, Wang Z
Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2024 Mar 10;45(3):373-378. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20230831-00115.
To analyze the characteristics, change of injury death spectrum in children aged 0-14 years and its urban-rural difference in Tianjin. The incidence data of injury death in children aged 0-14 years in Tianjin from 1999 to 2021 were collected from the "Population Based Mortality Surveillance System in Tianjin". We calculated constituent ratio, crude and standardized mortality rates in different subgroups of the population and major injury subtypes, and compared the rural-urban differences. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze temporal trends in cause-of-death component ratios. Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate average annual percent change (AAPC). Seasonal difference in injury mortality risk were expressed as mortality ratio and 95% confidence interval. From 1999 to 2021, injury was the third cause of death in children aged 0-14 years in Tianjin. The percentage of children who died in health-care facilities in rural area was 31.08%, which was lower than 37.82% in urban area. There was a downward trend in the standardized mortality rate of injury in children (AAPC=-5.54%, <0.001). The standardized mortality rates of drowning and road traffic injury declined in both urban area and rural area (<0.001). The mortality rate of accidental poisoning decreased in rural area (AAPC=-8.09%, <0.001), but showed no significant change trend in urban area (>0.05). The standardized mortality rate of suicide showed no significant change trend in urban area, but there was an increasing trend in the standardized mortality rate of suicide in rural children aged 10-14 years (AAPC=4.58%). No significant change trend was observed in mortality rate of falls in urban and rural children (>0.05). The injury mortality rate showed obvious seasonality in children in Tianjin. Overall injury death risk and risk for drowning-caused death were highest in summer in both urban area and rural area. The risk for road traffic injury-related death was highest in autumn in urban area and in summer in rural area. The risk for death caused by accidental poisoning was highest in winter in both urban area and rural area. In recent decades, the injury mortality rate in children aged 0-14 years in Tianjin showed a decreasing trend. There is still a significant difference in the injury mortality level between urban area and rural area, to which close attention needs to be paid in the future policy development.
分析天津市0-14岁儿童伤害死亡谱的特征、变化及其城乡差异。从“天津市全人群死亡监测系统”收集1999年至2021年天津市0-14岁儿童伤害死亡的发病数据。我们计算了不同人群亚组和主要伤害亚型的构成比、粗死亡率和标准化死亡率,并比较了城乡差异。采用 Cochr an-Armitage趋势检验分析死因构成比的时间趋势。采用Joinpoint回归模型计算平均年度百分比变化(AAPC)。伤害死亡风险的季节差异以死亡率比和95%置信区间表示。1999年至2021年,伤害是天津市0-14岁儿童的第三大死因。农村地区在医疗机构死亡的儿童比例为31.08%,低于城市地区的37.82%。儿童伤害标准化死亡率呈下降趋势(AAPC=-5.54%,<0.001)。城市和农村地区溺水和道路交通伤害的标准化死亡率均下降(<0.001)。农村地区意外中毒死亡率下降(AAPC=-8.09%,<0.001),但城市地区无明显变化趋势(>0.05)。城市地区自杀标准化死亡率无明显变化趋势,但农村10-14岁儿童自杀标准化死亡率呈上升趋势(AAPC=4.58%)。城乡儿童跌倒死亡率均无明显变化趋势(>0.05)。天津市儿童伤害死亡率呈现明显的季节性。城市和农村地区总体伤害死亡风险和溺水致死风险在夏季最高。城市地区道路交通伤害相关死亡风险在秋季最高,农村地区在夏季最高。意外中毒致死风险在城市和农村地区冬季均最高。近几十年来,天津市0-14岁儿童伤害死亡率呈下降趋势。城乡伤害死亡水平仍存在显著差异,在未来政策制定中需密切关注。