A new method for accurate inversion of Forel-Ule index using MODIS images - revealing the water color evolution in China's large lakes and reservoirs over the past two decades.

The Forel Ule water color index (FUI) based on satellite inversion can characterize the comprehensive characteristics of water quality on a large spatiotemporal scale. The high-frequency observations and rich historical data of the MODIS surface reflectance product (MODIS-500 m) provide important data support for monitoring the FUI of inland lakes. However, MODIS-500 m has only three bands in the visible light range, resulting in significant uncertainty in FUI inversion. To address this problem, this study developed an improved FUI inversion model using 500 synthetic spectra covering natural waters. The model, with a performance threshold set at 170° (FUI = 8), used a segmented algorithm across the entire color space. Validated with on-site measurement datasets (3500 samples), the model exhibited excellent performance, with mean relative error (MRE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.71 % and 3.63°, respectively. Compared to existing models, it was more suitable for long-term FUI inversion in various types of lakes, particularly in eutrophic regions. Subsequently, the model was applied to MODIS-500 m observations from 2000 to 2022, revealing the spatiotemporal dynamics of FUI in 180 large lakes and reservoirs (hereinafter referred to as lakes) in China. The results indicated that the long-term mean FUI in the study area was 9, with 7 and 12 in the western and eastern regions, respectively, showing a distinct spatial distribution of "blue in the west and green in the east." The mean change rate of hue angle for all lakes was -0.085°/yr, showing an overall decreasing trend. Environmental factors' relative contributions to long-term water color changes in each lake region were quantified using the multiple general linear model (GLM). Although each lake region exhibited different driving forces, they were primarily influenced by vegetation, lake surface area, and anthropogenic factors. Additionally, the seasonal types of lake water color were analyzed, with the west and east showing opposite patterns, reflecting the significant influence of topographic features and seasonal changes in climate on water color. The research results provide techniques for accurate inversion of FUI using MODIS-500 m data, while deepening the understanding of long-term water color changes in inland lakes in China.