Cancer Diagnosis and Pathology Group, Kolling Institute of Medical Research, University of Sydney.
From the Department of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery, Royal North Shore Hospital.
Pancreas. 2024 Aug 1;53(7):e579-e587. doi: 10.1097/MPA.0000000000002345. Epub 2024 May 1.
Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) represents a leading cause of morbidity and mortality following major pancreatic resections. This study aimed to evaluate the use of postoperative drain fluid lipase-to-amylase ratio (LAR) for the prediction of clinically relevant fistulae (CR-POPF).
Consecutive patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy between 2017 and 2021 at a tertiary centre were retrospectively reviewed. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify predictors for CR-POPF (ISGPS grade B/C). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to evaluate the performance of LAR and determine optimum prediction thresholds.
Among 130 patients, 28 (21.5%) developed CR-POPF. Variables positively associated with CR-POPF included soft gland texture, acinar cell density, diagnosis other than PDAC or chronic pancreatitis, resection without neoadjuvant therapy, and postoperative drain fluid lipase, amylase, and LAR (all P <0.05). Multivariable regression analysis identified LAR as an independent predictor of CR-POPF ( P <0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that LAR had moderate ability to predict CR-POPF on POD1 (AUC,0.64; 95%CI,0.54-0.74) and excellent ability on POD3 (AUC,0.85; 95%CI,0.78-0.92) and POD 5 (AUC,0.86; 95%CI,0.79-0.92). Optimum thresholds were consistent over PODs 1 to 5 (ratio>2.6) and associated with 92% sensitivity and 46% to 71% specificity.
Postoperative drain fluid LAR represents a reliable predictor for the development of CR-POPF. With early prognostication, the postoperative care of patients at risk of developing high-grade fistulas may be optimized.
术后胰腺瘘(POPF)是胰十二指肠切除术等重大胰腺手术后发病率和死亡率的主要原因。本研究旨在评估术后引流液脂肪酶与淀粉酶比值(LAR)对临床相关瘘(CR-POPF)的预测作用。
回顾性分析了 2017 年至 2021 年在一家三级中心接受胰十二指肠切除术的连续患者。进行单变量和多变量分析,以确定 CR-POPF(ISGPS 分级 B/C)的预测因子。进行接收者操作特征(ROC)曲线分析,以评估 LAR 的性能并确定最佳预测阈值。
在 130 名患者中,28 名(21.5%)发生了 CR-POPF。与 CR-POPF 呈正相关的变量包括软腺体质地、腺泡细胞密度、非 PDAC 或慢性胰腺炎的诊断、无新辅助治疗的切除术,以及术后引流液脂肪酶、淀粉酶和 LAR(均 P<0.05)。多变量回归分析表明,LAR 是 CR-POPF 的独立预测因子(P<0.05)。ROC 曲线分析显示,LAR 在术后第 1 天(AUC,0.64;95%CI,0.54-0.74)预测 CR-POPF 的能力中等,在术后第 3 天(AUC,0.85;95%CI,0.78-0.92)和术后第 5 天(AUC,0.86;95%CI,0.79-0.92)预测 CR-POPF 的能力优秀。在 POD1 到 POD5 之间,最佳阈值是一致的(比值>2.6),与 92%的敏感性和 46%至 71%的特异性相关。
术后引流液 LAR 是预测 CR-POPF 发生的可靠指标。通过早期预测,可能优化发生高分级瘘风险患者的术后护理。