Can the development of the rural digital economy reduce agricultural carbon emissions? A spatiotemporal empirical study based on China's provinces.

Rapid advancement of the rural digital economy has intensified the demand for leveraging digital tools to foster low-carbon and sustainable agricultural practices, garnering widespread academic and bureaucratic attention. Understanding how the rural digital economy influences agricultural carbon emissions is crucial for unlocking emission reduction potential, facilitating a transition towards sustainable energy usage in rural areas, and nurturing green agricultural development. In this study, we employ the entropy method, a spatial Durbin model, and a panel threshold model to assess the impact of the rural digital economy on agricultural carbon emissions across each province in China from 2010 to 2022. Additionally, we delve into the mechanism through which the rural digital economy facilitates agricultural carbon reduction, particularly in terms of "agricultural socialized services". Our findings reveal several key insights. Firstly, the rural digital economy contributes significantly to reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity. Secondly, there is a non-linear relationship between the rural digital economy and agricultural carbon emissions. With the development of rural digital economy showing a marginal decreasing trend, there is an obvious threshold effect. Thirdly, enhancing agricultural socialized services through the rural digital economy can curb agricultural carbon emissions. Lastly, the carbon reduction effect of the rural digital economy is more significant in more economically developed areas, areas with moderate levels of economic development, and areas with low technological investment; implementation of a "zero growth" policy for fertilizers strengthens this carbon reduction effect. This study sheds light on the mechanisms and effects of agricultural carbon emissions, offering quantitative evidence and theoretical support for the transition towards low-carbon and sustainable agricultural development.