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1950年至2019年美国过早死亡对出生人口数量的影响。

The impact of early death on birth counts in the United States, 1950 to 2019.

作者信息

Polizzi Antonino, Tilstra Andrea M

机构信息

Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, 42-43 Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1JD, UK.

Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, 42-43 Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1JD, UK.

出版信息

PNAS Nexus. 2024 Jun 7;3(6):pgae058. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae058. eCollection 2024 Jun.

Abstract

In a previous issue of , Bor et al. quantified the number of "missing Americans"-the deaths that would have been averted if the United States had experienced the mortality conditions of other wealthy nations. In 2019 alone, their estimates indicate that more than 100,000 individuals in reproductive ages (15-49 years) would have survived. The concept of the "missing Americans" is a valuable one, but here we argue that it is incomplete because it does not include children that would have been born to those who died an early death. We examine 3 indicators to assess the strength of the mortality-fertility nexus at the population level, showing that mortality more negatively affects birth counts in the United States than in other wealthy nations. Using the mortality conditions in other wealthy nations as a reference, we estimate that between 2010 and 2019 alone, approximately 200,000 children were not born in the United States due to the premature death of their potential mothers. Our findings highlight that improving morbidity and mortality among people of reproductive age-without compromising their reproductive autonomy-is critical in the United States.

摘要

在《》的上一期中,博尔等人对“失踪的美国人”数量进行了量化——即如果美国经历其他富裕国家的死亡率状况本可避免的死亡人数。仅在2019年,他们的估计表明,超过10万名育龄(15至49岁)个体本可存活。“失踪的美国人”这一概念很有价值,但我们在此认为它并不完整,因为它没有包括那些早逝者本可生育的孩子。我们研究了3项指标,以评估人口层面死亡率与生育率之间联系的强度,结果表明,在美国,死亡率对出生人数的负面影响比其他富裕国家更大。以其他富裕国家的死亡率状况为参照,我们估计,仅在2010年至2019年期间,美国就有约20万名儿童因未来母亲过早死亡而未出生。我们的研究结果凸显出,在美国,在不损害育龄人群生殖自主权的前提下,改善他们的发病率和死亡率至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/60e9/11157966/225b9bbc9e6e/pgae058f1.jpg

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