Uemura Shuji, Nakayama Ryuichi, Koyama Masayuki, Taguchi Yukiko, Bunya Naofumi, Sawamoto Keigo, Ohnishi Hirofumi, Narimatsu Eichi
Department of Emergency Medicine, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, S-1, W-16, Chuo-ku, Sapporo, 060-8543, Japan.
Department of Emergency Medical Services, Life Flight and Disaster Medicine, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, S-1, W-16, Chuo-ku, Sapporo, 060-854356, Japan.
Int J Emerg Med. 2024 Jun 11;17(1):72. doi: 10.1186/s12245-024-00654-w.
Falls among older individuals contribute significantly to the rise in ambulance transport use. To recognize the importance of future countermeasures, we estimated the projected number and percentage of fall-related emergency medical service (EMS) calls.
We examined the sex, age group, and location of falls among patients aged ≥ 65 years who contacted emergency services in Sapporo City from 2013 to 2021. Annual fall-related calls per population subgroup were calculated, and trends were analyzed. Four models were used to estimate the future number of fall-related calls from the 2025-2060 projected population: (1) based on the 2022 data, estimates from the 2013-2022 data using (2) Poisson progression, (3) neural network, (4) estimates from the 2013-2019 data using neural network. The number of all EMS calls was also determined using the same method to obtain the ratio of all EMS calls.
During 2013-2022, 70,262 fall-related calls were made for those aged ≥ 65 years. The rate was higher indoors among females and outdoor among males in most age groups and generally increased with age. After adjusting for age, the rate increased by year. Future estimates of the number of fall calls are approximately double the number in 2022 in 2040 and three times in 2060, with falls accounting for approximately 11% and 13% of all EMS calls in 2040 and 2060, respectively.
The number of fall-related EMS calls among older people is expected to increase in the future, and the percentage of EMS calls will also increase; therefore, countermeasures are urgently needed.
老年人跌倒显著导致了救护车运输使用量的增加。为认识到未来应对措施的重要性，我们估算了与跌倒相关的紧急医疗服务（EMS）呼叫的预计数量和百分比。
我们调查了2013年至2021年期间在札幌市联系紧急服务的65岁及以上患者的跌倒性别、年龄组和地点。计算了每个亚人群的年度跌倒相关呼叫量，并分析了趋势。使用四种模型根据2025 - 2060年预计人口估算未来跌倒相关呼叫的数量：（1）基于2022年数据，使用（2）泊松进展法根据2013 - 2022年数据进行估算，（3）神经网络法，（4）使用神经网络法根据2013 - 2019年数据进行估算。还使用相同方法确定所有EMS呼叫的数量，以获得所有EMS呼叫的比例。
在2013 - 2022年期间，65岁及以上人群共拨打了70262次与跌倒相关的呼叫。在大多数年龄组中，女性在室内的发生率较高而男性在室外的发生率较高，且总体上随年龄增长而增加。在调整年龄后，发生率逐年上升。跌倒呼叫数量的未来估计在2040年约为2022年的两倍，在2060年约为三倍，跌倒分别占2040年和2060年所有EMS呼叫的约11%和13%。
预计未来老年人中与跌倒相关的EMS呼叫数量将会增加，且EMS呼叫的百分比也会增加；因此，迫切需要采取应对措施。
