The recent disappearance of a persistent Planktothrix bloom: Characterization of a regime shift in the phytoplankton of Sandusky Bay (USA).

Sandusky Bay is the drowned mouth of the Sandusky River in the southwestern portion of Lake Erie. The bay is a popular recreation location and a regional source for drinking water. Like the western basin of Lake Erie, Sandusky Bay is known for being host to summer cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cHABs) year after year, fueled by runoff from the predominantly agricultural watershed and internal loading of legacy nutrients (primarily phosphorus). Since at least 2003, Sandusky Bay has harbored a microcystin-producing bloom of Planktothrix agardhii, a species of filamentous cyanobacteria that thrives in low light conditions. Long-term sampling (2003-2018) of Sandusky Bay revealed regular Planktothrix-dominated blooms during the summer months, but in recent years (2019-2022), 16S rRNA gene community profiling revealed that Planktothrix has largely disappeared. From 2017-2022, microcystin decreased well below the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Spring TN:TP ratios increased in years following dam removal, yet there were no statistically significant shifts in other physicochemical variables, such as water temperature and water clarity. With the exception of the high bloom of Planktothrix in 2018, there was no statistical difference in chlorophyll during all other years. Concurrent with the disappearance of Planktothrix, Cyanobium spp. have become the dominant cyanobacterial group. The appearance of other potential toxigenic genera (i.e., Aphanizomenon, Dolichospermum, Cylindrospermopsis) may motivate monitoring of new toxins of concern in Sandusky Bay. Here, we document the regime shift in the cyanobacterial community and propose evidence supporting the hypothesis that the decline in the Planktothrix bloom was linked to the removal of an upstream dam on the Sandusky River.