External validation of the SHAPE score and its comparison to the Oakland score for the prediction of safe discharge in patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND

The growing incidence of lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) is leading to a rise in-hospital admissions even though most LGIB episodes are self-limiting. The Oakland and SHAPE scores were designed to identify patients best suited to outpatient care. Our aim is explore the validity of the SHAPE score and compare both of these scores in terms of predictiveness of safe discharge.

METHODS

Retrospective observational study of LGIB patients admitted to a tertiary hospital between June 2014 and June 2019. Safe discharge was defined as the absence of all the following: blood transfusion, haemostatic intervention, re-bleeding, in-hospital death, and re-admission due to LGIB within 28 days after discharge.

RESULTS

From 595 hospital admissions for LGIB, 398 episodes were included. Fifty-four per cent met safe discharge criteria, with these cases being younger, with a lower score in the Charlson's index and significantly higher haemoglobin concentration upon arrival. The performance of both scores was good, with an AUC for the Oakland score of 0.85 (95% CI 0.82-0.89) and of 0.797 (95% CI 0.75-0.84) for the SHAPE score. The Oakland score performed better in terms of prediction of safe discharge, with a positive predictive value and specificity of 100% when a cut-off value of ≤ 8 points was used; however, only a minority of patients might benefit from its implementation given its low sensitivity.

CONCLUSIONS

Almost half of the patients admitted for LGIB met criteria for safe discharge. However, the available indexes only allow for the identification of a small proportion of those patients candidates for outpatient care.