Ciarlo' James, Giorgi Filippo
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy.
University of Malta, Msida, Malta.
Open Res Eur. 2024 Jul 29;4:114. doi: 10.12688/openreseurope.17674.1. eCollection 2024.
Understanding trends in extreme precipitation events in the context of global warming is critical for assessing climate change impacts. This study employs a novel methodology developed by Giorgi and Ciarlo (2022) to analyze record-breaking daily precipitation events from 1980 to 2020, utilizing three reanalysis products (ERA5, MERRA-2, and JRA-55) and one global observation dataset (MSWEP). Our results indicate a consistent and statistically significant increase in record-breaking precipitation events globally, with variations across different latitude bands and between land and ocean areas. This trend is evident in all datasets, with the most substantial increases observed over oceans in ERA5 and over land in JRA and MERRA. Notably, the Southern Hemisphere shows mixed results, with some regions displaying negative trends. This study highlights the increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events, supporting the hypothesis of intensified hydrological cycles under a warming climate. Our findings enhance understanding of precipitation extremes and underscore the importance of regional analyses in climate impact studies. Future work could extend these findings to formal attribution studies linking observed trends directly to anthropogenic climate change.
在全球变暖背景下了解极端降水事件的趋势对于评估气候变化影响至关重要。本研究采用了乔吉和恰洛(2022年)开发的一种新方法,利用三种再分析产品(ERA5、MERRA - 2和JRA - 55)和一个全球观测数据集(MSWEP),分析了1980年至2020年破纪录的每日降水事件。我们的结果表明,全球破纪录降水事件持续且在统计上显著增加,不同纬度带以及陆地和海洋区域之间存在差异。这种趋势在所有数据集中都很明显,在ERA5中海洋区域增加最为显著,在JRA和MERRA中陆地增加最为显著。值得注意的是,南半球的结果喜忧参半,一些地区呈现出负趋势。本研究突出了极端降水事件频率的增加,支持了气候变暖下水循环加剧的假设。我们的研究结果增进了对极端降水的理解,并强调了区域分析在气候影响研究中的重要性。未来的工作可以将这些结果扩展到将观测到的趋势直接与人为气候变化联系起来的正式归因研究中。