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评估早孕期生化标志物(PAPP-A、fβ-hCG)预测早产发生率的预测效能。

Evaluating the predictive efficacy of first trimester biochemical markers (PAPP-A, fβ-hCG) in forecasting preterm delivery incidences.

机构信息

Jan Kochanowski University, Kielce, Poland.

Clinic of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Provincial Combined Hospital in Kielce, Kielce, Poland.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Jul 13;14(1):16206. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-67300-6.

Abstract

In this investigation, we explored the correlation between first-trimester biochemical markers and the incidence of preterm birth (PTB), irrespective of the cause, spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB), and preterm premature rupture of membranes (pPROM) within a cohort comprising 1164 patients. It was discovered that diminished levels of Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A (PAPP-A) between 11 and 13 + 6 weeks of gestation significantly contributed to the risk of preterm deliveries both before 35 and 37 weeks, as well as to pPROM instances. Furthermore, women experiencing sPTB before the 37th week of gestation also exhibited lower concentrations of PAPP-A. Moreover, reduced first-trimester concentrations of free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (fb-HCG) were identified as a risk factor for deliveries preceding 37 weeks, pPROM, and sPTB before 35 weeks of gestation. Despite these correlations, the area under the curve for these biochemical markers did not surpass 0.7, indicating their limited diagnostic potential. The most significant discriminatory capability was noted for PAPP-A levels, with a threshold of < 0.71 multiples of the median (MoM) predicting PTB before 37 weeks, yielding an odds ratio of 3.11 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.97-4.92). For sPTB, the greatest discriminatory potential was observed for PAPP-A < 0.688, providing an OR of 2.66 (95% CI 1.51-4.66). The cut-off points corresponded to accuracies of 76.05% and 79.1%, respectively. In regression analyses, the combined predictive models exhibited low explanatory power with R values of 9.2% for PTB and 7.7% for sPTB below 35 weeks of gestation. In conclusion, while certain biochemical markers demonstrated associations with outcomes of preterm birth, their individual and collective predictive efficacies for foreseeing such events were found to be suboptimal.

摘要

在这项研究中,我们调查了 1164 例患者队列中,妊娠早期生化标志物与早产(PTB)的相关性,无论早产的原因是自发性早产(sPTB)还是早产胎膜早破(pPROM)。结果发现,妊娠 11 至 13+6 周时妊娠相关血浆蛋白 A(PAPP-A)水平降低,显著增加了 35 周前和 37 周前早产以及 pPROM 的风险。此外,在妊娠 37 周前发生 sPTB 的孕妇,其 PAPP-A 浓度也较低。另外,妊娠早期游离人绒毛膜促性腺激素β(fb-HCG)浓度降低被确定为 37 周前分娩、pPROM 和 35 周前 sPTB 的危险因素。尽管存在这些相关性,但这些生化标志物的曲线下面积均未超过 0.7,表明其诊断潜力有限。PAPP-A 水平的区分能力最强,其截断值<0.71 中位数倍数(MoM)预测 37 周前早产,优势比为 3.11(95%置信区间 [CI] 1.97-4.92)。对于 sPTB,PAPP-A<0.688 的区分能力最强,其优势比为 2.66(95%CI 1.51-4.66)。这些截断值对应的准确度分别为 76.05%和 79.1%。在回归分析中,组合预测模型的解释能力较低,PTB 的 R 值为 9.2%,35 周前 sPTB 的 R 值为 7.7%。总之,虽然某些生化标志物与早产结局相关,但它们单独和联合预测这些事件的效能均不理想。

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