From the Division of Pharmacoepidemiology (Y.X.), Clinical Epidemiology Center, Research and Development Service (Y.X., T.C., Z.A.-A.), and the Nephrology Section, Medicine Service (Z.A.-A.), Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System, the Veterans Research and Education Foundation of St. Louis (Y.X., T.C., Z.A.-A.), the Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine (Z.A.-A.), and the Institute for Public Health, Washington University in St. Louis (Z.A.-A.) - all in St. Louis.
N Engl J Med. 2024 Aug 8;391(6):515-525. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2403211. Epub 2024 Jul 17.
BACKGROUND: Postacute sequelae of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection (PASC) can affect many organ systems. However, temporal changes during the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, including the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, may have affected the risk and burden of PASC. Whether the risk and burden of PASC have changed over the course of the pandemic is unclear. METHODS: We used health records of the Department of Veterans Affairs to build a study population of 441,583 veterans with SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 1, 2020, and January 31, 2022, and 4,748,504 noninfected contemporaneous controls. We estimated the cumulative incidence of PASC at 1 year after SARS-CoV-2 infection during the pre-delta, delta, and omicron eras of the Covid-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Among unvaccinated persons infected with SARS-CoV-2, the cumulative incidence of PASC during the first year after infection was 10.42 events per 100 persons (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.22 to 10.64) in the pre-delta era, 9.51 events per 100 persons (95% CI, 9.26 to 9.75) in the delta era, and 7.76 events per 100 persons (95% CI, 7.57 to 7.98) in the omicron era (difference between the omicron and pre-delta eras, -2.66 events per 100 persons [95% CI, -2.93 to -2.36]; difference between the omicron and delta eras, -1.75 events per 100 persons [95% CI, -2.08 to -1.42]). Among vaccinated persons, the cumulative incidence of PASC at 1 year was 5.34 events per 100 persons (95% CI, 5.10 to 5.58) during the delta era and 3.50 events per 100 persons (95% CI, 3.31 to 3.71) during the omicron era (difference between the omicron and delta eras, -1.83 events per 100 persons; 95% CI, -2.14 to -1.52). Vaccinated persons had a lower cumulative incidence of PASC at 1 year than unvaccinated persons (difference during the delta era, -4.18 events per 100 persons [95% CI, -4.47 to -3.88]; difference during the omicron era, -4.26 events per 100 persons [95% CI, -4.49 to -4.05]). Decomposition analyses showed 5.23 (95% CI, 4.97 to 5.47) fewer PASC events per 100 persons at 1 year during the omicron era than during the pre-delta and delta eras combined; 28.11% of the decrease (95% CI, 25.57 to 30.50) was attributable to era-related effects (changes in the virus and other temporal effects), and 71.89% (95% CI, 69.50 to 74.43) was attributable to vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of PASC during the first year after SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased over the course of the pandemic, but the risk of PASC remained substantial even among vaccinated persons who had SARS-CoV-2 infection in the omicron era. (Supported by the Department of Veterans Affairs.).
背景:严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2)感染的急性后期后遗症(PASC)可能影响许多器官系统。然而,在 2019 年冠状病毒病(Covid-19)大流行期间,包括 SARS-CoV-2 的演变,可能会影响 PASC 的风险和负担。在大流行期间,PASC 的风险和负担是否发生了变化尚不清楚。
方法:我们使用退伍军人事务部的健康记录,建立了一个由 441583 名在 2020 年 3 月 1 日至 2022 年 1 月 31 日期间感染 SARS-CoV-2 的退伍军人和 4748504 名同期未感染的对照组成的研究人群。我们估计了在 SARS-CoV-2 感染后 1 年内 PASC 的累积发病率,分为新冠疫情的德尔塔前、德尔塔和奥密克戎时代。
结果:在未接种疫苗的 SARS-CoV-2 感染者中,感染后第 1 年的 PASC 累积发病率在德尔塔前时代为每 100 人 10.42 例(95%置信区间[CI],10.22 至 10.64),在德尔塔时代为每 100 人 9.51 例(95%CI,9.26 至 9.75),在奥密克戎时代为每 100 人 7.76 例(95%CI,7.57 至 7.98)(奥密克戎与德尔塔前时代之间的差异为每 100 人减少 2.66 例[95%CI,2.93 至 2.36];奥密克戎与德尔塔时代之间的差异为每 100 人减少 1.75 例[95%CI,2.08 至 1.42])。在接种疫苗的人群中,在奥密克戎时代,感染后第 1 年的 PASC 累积发病率为每 100 人 5.34 例(95%CI,5.10 至 5.58),在德尔塔时代为每 100 人 3.50 例(95%CI,3.31 至 3.71)(奥密克戎与德尔塔时代之间的差异为每 100 人减少 1.83 例[95%CI,2.14 至 1.52])。与未接种疫苗的人相比,接种疫苗的人在感染后第 1 年的 PASC 累积发病率较低(差异在德尔塔时代为每 100 人减少 4.18 例[95%CI,4.47 至 3.88];在奥密克戎时代为每 100 人减少 4.26 例[95%CI,4.49 至 4.05])。分解分析显示,与德尔塔前和德尔塔时代相比,奥密克戎时代每 100 人在感染后第 1 年减少了 5.23 例(95%CI,4.97 至 5.47)的 PASC 事件;28.11%的减少(95%CI,25.57 至 30.50)归因于与时代相关的影响(病毒和其他时间相关的变化),71.89%(95%CI,69.50 至 74.43)归因于疫苗。
结论:在 SARS-CoV-2 感染后第 1 年,PASC 的累积发病率在大流行期间有所下降,但即使在奥密克戎时代感染 SARS-CoV-2 的接种人群中,PASC 的风险仍然很大。(由退伍军人事务部支持)。
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