Neuroepidemiology Unit, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Australia; Florey Institute for Neuroscience and Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia; CORe, Department of Medicine, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia; Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
Department of Neurology, John Hunter Hospital, New Lambton, Australia; School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia.
Mult Scler Relat Disord. 2024 Oct;90:105786. doi: 10.1016/j.msard.2024.105786. Epub 2024 Jul 23.
Newcastle, Australia, has been serially studied for MS epidemiology since 1961, showing consistently increasing prevalence estimates and incidence rates, including to our 2011 study.
To assess the 2011-2021 epidemiology of MS in Newcastle and to compare with previous measures.
Demographic and clinical data were extracted from medical records of MS cases residing in Newcastle, as identified by public and private clinicians. Prevalence (2011 and 2021) and incidence rates (2011-2021, from onset and from diagnosis) and mortality rate (2011-2021) were estimated and age-standardised to the 2021 Australian population.
The 2021 prevalence was 173.1/100,000 (age-standardised = 178.7/100,000, F/M-sex-ratio = 3.3), a 42.2 % increase from 2011 (F/M-sex-ratio = 3.1), 175.0 % from 1996 (F/M-sex-ratio = 2.6), and 831.0 % from 1961 (F/M-sex-ratio = 1.2). The 2011-21 age-standardised onset incidence rate was 3.5/100,000 person-years (F/M-sex-ratio = 2.8), a 68.7 % increase from 1971 to 81 (F/M-sex-ratio = 1.1) and 44.5 % from 1986 to 96 (F/M-sex-ratio = 2.3). The age-standardised diagnosis incidence rate was 6.1/100,000 (F/M-sex-ratio = 2.2), statistically unchanged from that in 2001-2011 (6.8/100,000, F/M-sex-ratio = 3.2). The 2011-21 mortality rate was 2.1/100,000 person-years (2.2 age-standardised, F/M-sex-ratio = 1.4), with a standardised mortality ratio of 1.6.
The Newcastle region continues to be a high frequency zone for MS. The incidence rate from onset is significantly increased from previous estimates, but incidence rate from diagnosis is stable. Prevalence and incidence sex ratios have stabilised at roughly 3.0, similar to other Australian sites.
自 1961 年以来，澳大利亚纽卡斯尔一直在对多发性硬化症的流行病学进行连续研究，显示出患病率估计值和发病率持续上升，包括我们 2011 年的研究。
评估 2011 年至 2021 年期间纽卡斯尔多发性硬化症的流行病学，并与以前的测量结果进行比较。
从公共和私人临床医生确定的居住在纽卡斯尔的多发性硬化症病例的医疗记录中提取人口统计学和临床数据。估计患病率（2011 年和 2021 年）和发病率（2011-2021 年，从发病开始和从诊断开始）以及死亡率（2011-2021 年），并按 2021 年澳大利亚人口进行年龄标准化。
2021 年的患病率为 173.1/100,000（年龄标准化=178.7/100,000，男女性别比=3.3），比 2011 年增加了 42.2%（男女性别比=3.1），比 1996 年增加了 175.0%（男女性别比=2.6），比 1961 年增加了 831.0%（男女性别比=1.2）。2011-21 年年龄标准化的发病发病率为 3.5/100,000 人年（男女性别比=2.8），比 1971 年至 81 年增加了 68.7%（男女性别比=1.1），比 1986 年至 96 年增加了 44.5%（男女性别比=2.3）。年龄标准化的诊断发病率为 6.1/100,000（男女性别比=2.2），与 2001-2011 年（6.8/100,000，男女性别比=3.2）相比无统计学差异。2011-21 年的死亡率为 2.1/100,000 人年（2.2 年龄标准化，男女性别比=1.4），标准化死亡率为 1.6。
纽卡斯尔地区仍然是多发性硬化症的高发地区。从发病开始的发病率显著高于以前的估计，但从诊断开始的发病率保持稳定。患病率和发病率的性别比已稳定在大约 3.0，与其他澳大利亚地区相似。
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