Knodel J
Demography. 1979 Nov;16(4):493-521.
Utilizing data from a sample of German village genealogies, it is possible to document the changes in reproductive patterns on the family level that started to take place in Germany during the nineteenth century and formed the basis for the secular decline in fertility which eventually encompassed the entire country. One striking finding from this study was the substantial diversity among the small sample of villages in terms of the timing of the emergence of family limitation. While couples in all villages who married during the last half of the eighteenth century appeared to be characterized predominantly by natural fertility the emergence of family limitation began as early as the turn of the nineteenth century in some places and as late as the end of the nineteenth century in others. Occupational differentials with respect to family limitation were also examined. There is little evidence that changes in birth spacing played an important part in the initial phase of the fertility trnsition. Rather, the underlying process appears to involve a change from fertility patterns that were characterized by the absence of parity-dependent control to one in which attempts to terminate childbearing in response to the number of children already born becomes widespread.
利用来自德国村庄族谱样本的数据,可以记录19世纪在德国开始出现的家庭层面生殖模式的变化,这些变化构成了生育率长期下降的基础,最终这种下降影响了整个国家。这项研究的一个显著发现是,在家庭生育限制出现的时间方面,小村庄样本之间存在很大差异。虽然在18世纪后半叶结婚的所有村庄的夫妇似乎主要以自然生育为特征,但家庭生育限制在一些地方早在19世纪之交就已出现,而在其他地方则晚至19世纪末才出现。研究还考察了家庭生育限制方面的职业差异。几乎没有证据表明生育间隔的变化在生育率转变的初始阶段起到了重要作用。相反,潜在的过程似乎涉及从以缺乏与胎次相关的控制为特征的生育模式,转变为一种因已有子女数量而试图终止生育的做法变得普遍的模式。