Wade Stephen, Ngo Preston, He Yue, Caruana Michael, Steinberg Julia, Luo Qingwei, David Michael, McWilliams Annette, Fong Kwun M, Canfell Karen, Weber Marianne F
The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, Australia.
The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, Australia; School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, Australia.
Public Health Res Pract. 2024 Dec 18. doi: 10.17061/phrp34342410.
Australia's National Lung Cancer Screening Program will commence in July 2025, targeted at individuals aged 50-70 years with a 30 pack-year smoking history (equivalent to 20 cigarettes per day for 30 years), who either currently smoke or have quit within the past 10 years. We forecasted the number of screening-eligible individuals over the first 5 years of the program using data from the 2019 National Drug Strategy Household Survey and the 2022 Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections. Multiple imputation integrated with predictive modelling of future or unmeasured smoking characteristics was used to address missing data and, simultaneously, to project individuals' smoking histories to 2030. In 2025, 930 500 (95% prediction interval 852 200-1 019 000) individuals were estimated to be eligible, with the number meeting the criteria declining slightly during the years 2025-2030 in all Australian jurisdictions. Overall, 26-30% of those eligible will have quit smoking, and 70-74% will currently smoke. These estimates can be used in resource planning and as an indicative denominator to track participation rates for the program over time.
澳大利亚国家肺癌筛查计划将于2025年7月启动，目标人群为年龄在50至70岁之间、有30包年吸烟史（相当于每天吸20支烟，持续30年）的个人，这些人目前仍在吸烟或在过去10年内戒烟。我们利用2019年国家毒品战略家庭调查的数据和2022年澳大利亚统计局的人口预测，预测了该计划前5年符合筛查条件的人数。采用多重填补法并结合对未来或未测量吸烟特征的预测模型来处理缺失数据，同时将个人吸烟史预测到2030年。预计到2025年，符合条件的人数为930500人（95%预测区间为852200 - 1019000人），在2025 - 2030年期间，澳大利亚所有司法管辖区内符合标准的人数略有下降。总体而言，符合条件的人群中，26% - 30%已经戒烟，70% - 74%目前仍在吸烟。这些估计数可用于资源规划，并作为一个指示性分母来跟踪该计划随时间推移的参与率。
