Guo Liang, Chen Lijing, Yang Zhen
Academy of Fine Arts, Weifang University, Weifang, China.
School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, Weifang University, Weifang, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Jan 6;20(1):e0316202. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0316202. eCollection 2025.
As the foundation and cornerstone of the digital economy, digital infrastructure construction is an indispensable engine for realizing China's energy-saving and emission-reduction, innovation-driven and low-carbon transformation and development. Investigating the carbon unlocking effect of digital infrastructure construction might hasten the achievement of the dual-carbon goal and the "win-win" scenario of environmental protection and economic growth. However, there is still a gap between whether and how digital infrastructure construction can break the carbon lock-in (CLI). Based on the panel data of 266 prefecture-level cities from 2006 to 2019, this paper takes "Broadband China" policy (BCP) as a quasi-natural experiment, constructs a spatial difference-in-difference (SDID) model to explore its impact on CLI, and further analyzes its transmission mechanism, spatial spillover effect and heterogeneity. The results show that: (1) BCP can break the carbon lock-in in the pilot cities and remains valid after a series of robustness tests. (2) There is a lag in the carbon unlocking effect of BCP, and the effect is gradually significant after 3 years of policy implementation. (3) BCP has a spatial spillover impact on CLI, and it significantly contributes to both nearby and local cities. (4) By encouraging green technical advancement and upgrading industrial structure, BCP breaks the CLI. (5) There is regional heterogeneity and urban characteristic heterogeneity in the carbon unlocking effect of BCP. On this basis, we propose a series of policy recommendations to hasten the implementation of low-carbon transformation and sustainable urban development.
作为数字经济的基础和基石，数字基础设施建设是实现中国节能减排、创新驱动和低碳转型发展不可或缺的引擎。考察数字基础设施建设的碳解锁效应，可能会加速实现双碳目标以及环境保护与经济增长的“双赢”局面。然而，数字基础设施建设能否以及如何打破碳锁定（CLI）仍存在差距。基于2006年至2019年266个地级市的面板数据，本文以“宽带中国”政策（BCP）为准自然实验，构建空间双重差分（SDID）模型来探究其对CLI的影响，并进一步分析其传导机制、空间溢出效应和异质性。研究结果表明：（1）BCP能够打破试点城市的碳锁定，且经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。（2）BCP的碳解锁效应存在滞后性，政策实施3年后效应逐渐显著。（3）BCP对CLI具有空间溢出影响，对邻近城市和本地城市均有显著贡献。（4）BCP通过鼓励绿色技术进步和推动产业结构升级来打破CLI。（5）BCP的碳解锁效应存在区域异质性和城市特征异质性。在此基础上，我们提出了一系列政策建议，以加速低碳转型的实施和城市的可持续发展。
