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巴西自杀死亡率的时间趋势及风险区域识别(2000 - 2022年):我们是否在应对一场被低估的流行病?

Temporal Trends and Identification of Suicide Mortality Risk Areas in Brazil (2000-2022): Are We Dealing with an Underestimated Epidemic?

作者信息

Souza Danilo de Gois, Andrade Lucas Almeida, Góes José Augusto Passos, Melo Luís Ricardo Santos de, Melo Matheus Santos, Ribeiro Caíque Jordan Nunes, Santos José Marcos de Jesus, Camargo Emerson Lucas Silva, de Sousa Álvaro Francisco Lopes, Carneiro Liliane Moretti, Souza Regina Claudia da Silva, Santos Márcio Bezerra, Lima Shirley Veronica Melo Almeida, Ventura Carla Aparecida Arena, Dos Santos Allan Dantas

机构信息

Collective Health Research Center (NISC/UFS), Postgraduate Program in Nursing, Federal University of Sergipe, São Cristóvão 49107-230, SE, Brazil.

Collective Health Research Center (NISC/UFS), Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, University of Sergipe, São Cristóvão 49107-230, SE, Brazil.

出版信息

Medicina (Kaunas). 2024 Dec 19;60(12):2083. doi: 10.3390/medicina60122083.

Abstract

: Suicide is a pressing public health issue globally, including in Brazil, where it ranks among the leading causes of mortality. This study aimed to analyze the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal distribution of suicide mortality in Brazil from 2000 to 2022. : Using secondary data from the Mortality Information System of Brazil's 5570 municipalities, an ecological study of time series was conducted. Segmented linear regression (Joinpoint 4.6 version) was used to calculate temporal trends, while Moran's indices were employed to analyze spatial autocorrelations. Retrospective scanning was utilized to investigate spatiotemporal clusters, and choropleth maps were developed to visualize high-risk areas. : The analysis revealed the occurrence of 240,843 suicides in Brazil, with higher percentages in the southeast, south, and northeast regions. The south, central-west, and southeast regions exhibited the highest mortality rates, predominantly among white, single men, aged 20 to 59, with 1 to 11 years of schooling. Intentional self-harm by hanging, strangulation, and suffocation was the main cause. The general trend of mortality due to suicide in Brazil was increasing (AAPC: 2.9; CI 95%: 2.6 to 3.0), with emphasis on the age groups from 10 to 19 years (AAPC: 3.7; CI 95%: 2.9 to 4.5) and 20-39 years old (AAPC: 2.9; CI 95%: 2.3 to 3.5). The brutal and smoothed rates revealed areas of high mortality in the south, north, and central-west regions. : The findings of this study highlight the need to direct resources and efforts to the south and midwest regions of Brazil, where suicide rates are the highest. Additionally, implementing targeted prevention programs for young men, who are the most affected, is essential to reduce suicide mortality in these areas.

摘要

自杀是一个全球性的紧迫公共卫生问题,在巴西亦是如此,它位列主要死因之一。本研究旨在分析2000年至2022年巴西自杀死亡率的空间、时间和时空分布。利用巴西5570个市的死亡信息系统的二手数据,进行了一项时间序列生态研究。采用分段线性回归(Joinpoint 4.6版本)计算时间趋势,同时运用莫兰指数分析空间自相关。利用回顾性扫描调查时空聚集情况,并绘制分级统计图以直观呈现高风险区域。分析显示巴西发生了240,843起自杀事件,东南部、南部和东北部地区的自杀率更高。南部、中西部和东南部地区的死亡率最高,主要集中在20至59岁、接受过1至11年教育的单身白人男性中。上吊、勒颈和窒息导致的故意自伤是主要原因。巴西自杀死亡率的总体趋势呈上升态势(年度百分比变化率:2.9;95%置信区间:2.6至3.0),其中10至19岁年龄组(年度百分比变化率:3.7;95%置信区间:2.9至4.5)和20至39岁年龄组(年度百分比变化率:2.9;95%置信区间:2.3至3.5)尤为明显。粗死亡率和平滑死亡率显示南部、北部和中西部地区存在高死亡率区域。本研究结果凸显了将资源和努力导向巴西自杀率最高的南部和中西部地区的必要性。此外,针对受影响最大的年轻男性实施有针对性的预防计划,对于降低这些地区的自杀死亡率至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/299a/11677106/6d2863bcc310/medicina-60-02083-g001.jpg

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