Marinaccio A, Gariazzo C, Taiano L, Bonafede M, Martini D, D'Amario S, de'Donato F, Morabito M
Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Epidemiology and Hygiene Department, Italian Workers' Compensation Authority (INAIL), Rome, Italy.
Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Epidemiology and Hygiene Department, Italian Workers' Compensation Authority (INAIL), Rome, Italy.
Environ Res. 2025 Mar 15;269:120844. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2025.120844. Epub 2025 Jan 18.
Climate change is a fundamental threat to human health and outdoor workers are one of the most vulnerable population subgroups. Increasing heat stress and heatwaves are directly associated with the health and safety of workers for a large spectrum of occupations. Heat stress negatively affects labour supply, productivity, and workability.
The aims of this study are to estimate the risk of work-related injuries for extreme temperature outdoor exposure in Italy, to evaluate the loss in productivity and the associated insurance costs for supporting the co-benefits analysis of the adaptation measures.
The relationship between air temperature and occupational injuries (in the period 2014-19) was evaluated using a time-series approach, by means of a specific over-dispersed Poisson generalized linear regression model, applied to compensation data. To assess the effect of temperature on workability, the wet bulb global temperature (WBGT) was estimated by different levels of humidity and vapor pressure. The costs of injuries have been estimated according to the potential consequences in terms of paid insurance premium and including all management and human resources costs.
We estimated 25,632 (95%CI 22,353-28,862) occupational injuries in Italy attributed to heat (between 75° and 99° percentiles) in the period 2014-2019, which corresponds to an average of 4272 cases for year. A decrease in productivity of about 6.5% was estimated for workers engaged in physical activities requiring high metabolic rates for every unit degree increase in temperature between 19.6 C° and 31.8 C°. The overall compensation costs associated to extreme heat exposure have been estimated to more than 292 million euros between 2014 and 2019, almost equal to 49 million euros per year.
Prevention measures and adaptation strategies for contrasting the occupational exposure to extreme temperatures can help contain both the risk of injury and, productivity loss, in a co-benefits perspective.
气候变化是对人类健康的根本威胁，户外工作者是最脆弱的人群亚组之一。日益增加的热应激和热浪与众多职业工人的健康和安全直接相关。热应激对劳动力供应、生产力和工作能力产生负面影响。
本研究的目的是估计意大利户外极端温度暴露导致的与工作相关伤害的风险，评估生产力损失以及支持适应措施共同效益分析的相关保险成本。
采用时间序列方法，通过应用于补偿数据的特定过度分散泊松广义线性回归模型，评估2014 - 19年期间气温与职业伤害之间的关系。为评估温度对工作能力的影响，根据不同湿度和蒸汽压水平估算湿球黑球温度（WBGT）。伤害成本已根据支付保险费方面的潜在后果进行估算，包括所有管理和人力资源成本。
我们估计2014 - 2019年期间意大利有25,632例（95%置信区间22,353 - 28,862）因热（75°至99°百分位数之间）导致的职业伤害，相当于每年平均4272例。对于从事需要高代谢率体力活动的工人，在19.6摄氏度至31.8摄氏度之间，每单位温度升高估计生产力下降约6.5%。2014年至2019年期间，与极端热暴露相关的总体补偿成本估计超过2.92亿欧元，几乎等于每年4900万欧元。
从共同效益角度来看，针对极端温度职业暴露的预防措施和适应策略有助于控制伤害风险和生产力损失。
