Zhao Jingdong, Zhu Yuanjun, Wang Le, Li Zedong, Shi Zhongjie, Yang Xiaohui, Yahdjian Laura
Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China; Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China.
Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China; Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Mar;377:124648. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124648. Epub 2025 Feb 24.
Climate change and anthropogenic activities have amplified the risk of invasive species spread. Approximately two-thirds of Argentina's land area comprises arid and semi-arid rangelands, yet the current state of invasions across these vast regions and their projected spread under future climate change scenarios remain insufficiently understood. To address this research gap, we employed an ensemble modeling approach to simulate and predict the distribution of 30 major invasive species across Argentina's five key arid and semi-arid rangelands. Our findings revealed that Patagonia and Western Chaco are minimally impacted by invasive species, while the Monte and Puna rangelands exhibit extensive areas of low invasion risk. In contrast, the Caldenal rangeland, as an ecotone, faces the most severe impacts. Notably, Centaurea solstitialis, Cynodon dactylon, Diplotaxis tenuifolia, Plantago major, Polypogon monspeliensis, Sorghum halepense, and Taraxacum officinale were identified as key invaders in Argentina's arid and semi-arid rangelands, with invasion areas exceeding 10% in at least one rangeland. Under high-emission scenarios, the invasion risk is projected to increase significantly across different rangelands. Among the key environmental variables incorporated into the model, the mean temperature of the driest quarter emerged as the most critical climatic variable due to its high contribution to the predicted distribution of 19 invasive species. Our study serves as a crucial warning for the management of arid and semi-arid rangelands in Argentina, highlighting the urgency of addressing invasive species under changing environmental conditions.
气候变化和人类活动加剧了外来物种扩散的风险。阿根廷约三分之二的土地面积为干旱和半干旱牧场，但目前对这些广大地区的入侵现状及其在未来气候变化情景下的预测扩散情况仍了解不足。为填补这一研究空白，我们采用了集合建模方法来模拟和预测30种主要外来物种在阿根廷五个关键干旱和半干旱牧场的分布。我们的研究结果表明，巴塔哥尼亚和西查科受外来物种影响最小，而蒙特和普纳牧场的低入侵风险区域广泛。相比之下，卡尔德纳尔牧场作为一个生态交错带，面临的影响最为严重。值得注意的是，夏至矢车菊、狗牙根、细叶双行芥、大车前、蒙斯佩利多花狐茅、黑高粱和蒲公英被确定为阿根廷干旱和半干旱牧场的主要入侵物种，其入侵面积在至少一个牧场超过10%。在高排放情景下，预计不同牧场的入侵风险将显著增加。在纳入模型的关键环境变量中，最干旱季度的平均温度成为最关键的气候变量，因为它对19种入侵物种的预测分布贡献很大。我们的研究为阿根廷干旱和半干旱牧场的管理提供了重要警示，凸显了在不断变化的环境条件下应对外来物种的紧迫性。
