Huang Bing-Yi, Zhao Qin, Peng Dan-Li, Wang Man-Yi, Zhao Qian-Wen
Laboratory of Genetics and Precision Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Guilin Medical College, Guilin, Guangxi 541001, China.
Zhongguo Dang Dai Er Ke Za Zhi. 2025 Mar 15;27(3):347-353. doi: 10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2408146.
To study the incidence and disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the incidence of congenital birth defects in this population from 2022 to 2036, providing a reference for the prevention of congenital birth defects in children.
Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were employed to describe the disease burden. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends in incidence and DALY rates of congenital birth defects in children under five. A grey prediction model GM(1,1) was applied to fit the trend of incidence rates of congenital birth defects in this age group and to predict the incidence from 2022 to 2036.
In 2021, the incidence rate of congenital birth defects among children under five in China was 737.28 per 100 000. Among these, congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities had the highest incidence rate at 307.15 per 100 000, followed by congenital heart defects (223.53 per 100 000), congenital urinary and genital tract malformations (74.99 per 100 000), and congenital gastrointestinal malformations (62.61 per 100 000). From 1990 to 2021, the incidence rate and DALY rate of congenital birth defects in children under five in China decreased at an average annual rate of 1.73% and 5.42%, respectively. The prediction analysis indicated a decreasing trend in the incidence of congenital birth defects among children under five in China from 2022 to 2036, with the incidence rate dropping from 892.36 per 100 000 in 2022 to 783.35 per 100 000 in 2036.
The incidence and disease burden of congenital birth defects in children under five in China showed a significant declining trend from 1990 to 2021. It is predicted that this incidence will continue to decrease until 2036.
研究1990年至2021年中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷的发病率和疾病负担，并预测2022年至2036年该人群先天性出生缺陷的发病率，为预防儿童先天性出生缺陷提供参考。
利用全球疾病负担研究2021（GBD 2021）数据库，采用发病率和伤残调整生命年（DALY）来描述疾病负担。采用Joinpoint回归模型分析5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷发病率和DALY率的变化趋势。应用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)拟合该年龄组先天性出生缺陷发病率的趋势，并预测2022年至2036年的发病率。
2021年，中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷发病率为每10万例737.28例。其中，先天性肌肉骨骼和肢体畸形发病率最高，为每10万例307.15例，其次是先天性心脏病（每10万例223.53例）、先天性泌尿生殖道畸形（每10万例74.99例）和先天性胃肠道畸形（每10万例62.61例）。1990年至2021年，中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷发病率和DALY率分别以年均1.73%和5.42%的速度下降。预测分析表明，2022年至2036年中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷发病率呈下降趋势，发病率将从2022年的每10万例892.36例降至2036年的每10万例783.35例。
1990年至2021年，中国5岁以下儿童先天性出生缺陷的发病率和疾病负担呈显著下降趋势。预计到2036年，这一发病率将继续下降。
