Xu Jun-Wei, Liu Zhi-Hua, Wu Fu-Sheng
School of Labor Relations and Human Resources, China University of Labor Relations, Beijing 100048, China.
College of Economics and Management, Institute of Disaster Prevention, Langfang 065201, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2025 Apr 8;46(4):2089-2102. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202403216.
In the dual context of rapid development in the digital economy and pursuit of dual carbon goals, exploring the impact of the digital economy on regional low-carbon economic transformation holds considerable importance. Based on the balanced panel data of 30 provinces from 2010 to 2021, this study empirically examined the direct, indirect, nonlinear, and spatial spillover effects of digital economy on regional low-carbon economic transformation using the panel fixed effect, intermediary effect, threshold effect, and spatial econometric models. The results showed that: ① Digital economy could significantly promote the transition of low-carbon economy, which was valid after multiple robustness tests. ② The mechanism test showed that the digital economy substantially promoted the transformation of the regional low-carbon economy by promoting green technology innovation and new urbanization. ③ The threshold effect test showed that when the level of green technology innovation was too high or the level of urbanization was in the primary stage, the role of digital economy in promoting regional low-carbon economic transformation would be weakened. ④ By constructing a spatial Dubin model, the digital economy showed a significant spatial spillover effect on the transformation of regional low-carbon economy, but the effect was stronger in the "geographically neighboring provinces and municipalities" than in the "economically neighboring provinces and municipalities".
在数字经济快速发展和追求双碳目标的双重背景下,探究数字经济对区域低碳经济转型的影响具有重要意义。基于2010—2021年30个省份的平衡面板数据,本研究运用面板固定效应模型、中介效应模型、门槛效应模型和空间计量模型,实证检验了数字经济对区域低碳经济转型的直接效应、间接效应、非线性效应和空间溢出效应。研究结果表明:①数字经济能够显著促进低碳经济转型,经过多重稳健性检验后依然成立。②机制检验表明,数字经济通过推动绿色技术创新和新型城镇化,有力促进了区域低碳经济转型。③门槛效应检验表明,当绿色技术创新水平过高或城镇化处于初级阶段时,数字经济对区域低碳经济转型的促进作用会减弱。④通过构建空间杜宾模型发现,数字经济对区域低碳经济转型具有显著的空间溢出效应,且对“地理相邻省市”的溢出效应强于“经济相邻省市”。