Grundlehner Anne, Smith Joshua N, Bannister John L, Andrews-Goff Virginia, Brasier Madeleine, Double Micheal C, Corney Stuart P
Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 May;31(5):e70218. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70218.
The large-scale exploitation of whale populations in the whaling era led to the near extirpation of large whales all over the world. This must have had major repercussions for marine ecosystems globally. Consequent changes to those ecosystems and physical environments create uncertainty around whether present-day conditions are adequate to support full recovery of pre-whaling population sizes. Combined with potential effects of anthropogenic stressors, the future viability of exploited whale populations is questioned. This migrating species was left near extinction from whaling and has shown slow, yet steady, recovery in recent decades. Here, we collate abundance data from aerial surveys performed along the Australian coast between 1976 and 2024, covering 2250 km of coastal habitat, to study the recovery trajectory of Australian southern right whales (Eubalaena australis). We describe temporal trends in abundance, reproduction and growth of the western sub-population. Our study reveals that despite previously displaying exponential growth, and a present population size still residing far below pre-whaling levels, our annual births have started declining since 2016 and annual abundances of unaccompanied individuals have dropped by 66%. Our results suggest the end of an era of this population's recovery, highlighting that an initial period of steady recovery does not guarantee successful re-establishment of previous abundance levels.
在捕鲸时代，对鲸鱼种群的大规模捕杀导致全球范围内大型鲸鱼几近灭绝。这必然对全球海洋生态系统产生了重大影响。这些生态系统和物理环境随之发生的变化，使得如今的条件是否足以支持恢复到捕鲸前的种群规模存在不确定性。再加上人为压力源的潜在影响，被捕杀鲸鱼种群的未来生存能力受到质疑。这种洄游物种因捕鲸而濒临灭绝，近几十年来虽恢复缓慢但较为稳定。在此，我们整理了1976年至2024年间沿澳大利亚海岸进行的空中调查的丰度数据，涵盖2250公里的沿海栖息地，以研究澳大利亚南露脊鲸（Eubalaena australis）的恢复轨迹。我们描述了西部亚种群在丰度、繁殖和生长方面的时间趋势。我们的研究表明，尽管此前呈现指数增长，且目前的种群规模仍远低于捕鲸前的水平，但自2016年以来，我们的年度出生率开始下降，无伴个体的年度丰度下降了66%。我们的结果表明该种群恢复时代的结束，凸显出初期的稳定恢复并不保证能成功恢复到以前的丰度水平。
