Kravchenko Kseniia, Voigt Christian C, Volkholz Jan, Courtiol Alexandre, Currie Shannon E
Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany.
Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Ecol Lett. 2025 May;28(5):e70119. doi: 10.1111/ele.70119.
Predicting species range shifts in response to environmental change requires the determination of regions where individuals maintain a positive energy budget. For hibernating animals, this budget depends on two physiological states (normothermy and torpor) that alternate in response to ambient temperature. To study range shifts of hibernators like the common noctule (Nyctalus noctula), we developed an ecophysiological approach that integrates metabolic rates, physiological states, and environmental conditions. Our model accurately hindcasted the northward range shift of this migratory bat over the past 50 years. Under climate change forecasts SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, for which winters will shorten by 1.4-41 days and warm by 0.11°C-2.3°C, the hibernation area is predicted to shift by 78-732 km and expand north-eastward by 5.8%-14% by 2100. Mean ambient temperature and winter duration prove sufficient to approximate the hibernation niche and may be used to predict changes in hibernation areas where collecting physiological measurements is difficult.
预测物种对环境变化的范围转移需要确定个体能维持正能量平衡的区域。对于冬眠动物来说，这种能量平衡取决于两种生理状态（正常体温和蛰伏），它们会根据环境温度交替出现。为了研究普通夜蝠（Nyctalus noctula）等冬眠动物的范围转移，我们开发了一种生态生理学方法，该方法整合了代谢率、生理状态和环境条件。我们的模型准确地回溯了这种迁徙蝙蝠在过去50年向北的范围转移。在气候变化预测的SSP1 - 2.6、SSP2 - 4.5、SSP3 - 7.0和SSP5 - 8.5情景下，冬季将缩短1.4 - 41天，气温将升高0.11°C - 2.3°C，预计到2100年，冬眠区域将向北移动78 - 732公里，并向东北方向扩展5.8% - 14%。平均环境温度和冬季时长足以近似冬眠生态位，可用于预测难以收集生理测量数据地区的冬眠区域变化。
