Rubino Francesca I, Pascoe Emily, Barrand Zachary A
School of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA.
Conservation Genomics Research Unit, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, Michele all'Adige, Italy.
J Med Entomol. 2025 Jul 17;62(4):938-947. doi: 10.1093/jme/tjaf047.
In the far western United States, the bacterial agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, is primarily transmitted to humans by the nymphal stage of the western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus. Predicting nymphal tick abundance would benefit public health but is complicated by the tick's complex multi-year life cycle and data limitations. To address this, we used readily available climate data, a long-term dataset from northwestern California, and time lags based on the tick's life cycle. Our model showed that warmer early spring temperatures during non-drought conditions the year prior predicted higher nymphal tick densities, while hot, dry springs the year prior were linked to earlier peaks in their abundance. Incorporating human-induced climate change projections, we predicted earlier peaks of nymphal tick activity over the next century, with the potential for an initial doubling in questing nymph numbers. This approach provides a valuable tool for public health and offers insights into the changing dynamics of Lyme disease ecology in the far-western US.
在美国最西部，莱姆病的病原体——广义伯氏疏螺旋体，主要通过太平洋硬蜱的若虫阶段传播给人类。预测若虫蜱的数量对公共卫生有益，但蜱复杂的多年生命周期和数据限制使其变得复杂。为了解决这个问题，我们使用了现有的气候数据、来自加利福尼亚州西北部的长期数据集以及基于蜱生命周期的时间滞后。我们的模型表明，前一年非干旱条件下早春温度较高预示着若虫蜱密度较高，而前一年炎热干燥的春天则与它们数量的较早峰值有关。结合人为引起的气候变化预测，我们预计下个世纪若虫蜱活动的峰值将提前出现，寻找宿主的若虫数量可能会初步翻倍。这种方法为公共卫生提供了一个有价值的工具，并深入了解了美国最西部莱姆病生态的变化动态。
