Liu Dongfang, Callaghan David P, Baldock Tom E
School of Civil Engineering, The University of Queensland, Queensland, 4072, Brisbane, Australia.
School of Civil Engineering, The University of Queensland, Queensland, 4072, Brisbane, Australia.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Jun;386:125716. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125716. Epub 2025 May 14.
Coral reef systems are facing unprecedented pressures due to climate change, and stable coral rubble substrates are crucial for facilitating large-scale coral regeneration. This study integrates the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate models, sea-level rise projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, and applies machine learning techniques to assess the risk of coral rubble instability in the Great Barrier Reef under future wave climate and depth change scenarios. Using the EC-Earth climate model under the SSP5-8.5 scenario-calibrated with data from 41 synoptic stations-we estimated various climate data for 2031-2100 and examined the impact of key factors such as wave climate and depth changes on the risk of coral instability. Coral rubble instability risk depends on future wave climate and depth changes from sea-level rise and deposition. Future changes in wave climate are expected to increase the risk of instability, while increased depth mitigates these destabilizing effects. Over the next 70 years, most areas of the Great Barrier Reef are projected to experience stable or decreasing risk of coral rubble instability. The proportion of no-risk areas is higher in the northern regions, whereas the far southern regions have fewer no-risk areas and more high-risk zones. High-risk and very high-risk areas are mainly concentrated along reef edges, reefs facing the Pacific Ocean, and shallow waters near the shoreline. The transition between high-risk and low-risk areas is gradual rather than abrupt. Annual projections align with long-term trends: coral rubble remains relatively stable in the northern and central regions, which is more conducive to future coral recovery. However, the persistent presence of high-risk and very high risk areas poses significant challenges to coral recovery in the far southern region. By providing insights into the spatial and temporal evolution of coral rubble instability risk, this study aims to support decision-makers, environmental scientists and researchers in formulating appropriate interventions to enhance the resilience of coral reefs under changing environmental conditions.
由于气候变化，珊瑚礁系统正面临前所未有的压力，而稳定的珊瑚礁碎屑基质对于促进大规模珊瑚再生至关重要。本研究整合了耦合模式比较计划第六阶段的气候模型、政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估报告中的海平面上升预测、共享社会经济路径情景，并应用机器学习技术评估未来波浪气候和深度变化情景下大堡礁珊瑚礁碎屑不稳定的风险。在SSP5-8.5情景下，使用经41个天气站数据校准的EC-Earth气候模型，我们估算了2031年至2100年的各种气候数据，并研究了波浪气候和深度变化等关键因素对珊瑚不稳定风险的影响。珊瑚礁碎屑不稳定风险取决于未来的波浪气候以及海平面上升和沉积导致的深度变化。预计未来波浪气候的变化将增加不稳定风险，而深度增加则会减轻这些破坏稳定的影响。在未来70年里，预计大堡礁的大部分地区珊瑚礁碎屑不稳定风险将保持稳定或降低。北部地区无风险区域的比例较高，而最南部地区无风险区域较少，高风险区域较多。高风险和极高风险区域主要集中在礁缘、面向太平洋的珊瑚礁以及海岸线附近的浅水区。高风险和低风险区域之间的过渡是渐进的，而非突然的。年度预测与长期趋势一致：北部和中部地区的珊瑚礁碎屑相对稳定，这更有利于未来珊瑚的恢复。然而，高风险和极高风险区域的持续存在给最南部地区的珊瑚恢复带来了重大挑战。通过深入了解珊瑚礁碎屑不稳定风险的时空演变，本研究旨在支持决策者、环境科学家和研究人员制定适当的干预措施，以增强珊瑚礁在不断变化的环境条件下的恢复力。
