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慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重患者急性心肌损伤的危险因素分析及预测模型的建立

Analysis of risk factors and development of predictive model for acute myocardial injury in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

作者信息

Qi Shan, Li Xuhong, Jiang Ying, Zhu Taiwen, Ze Li, Li Zhile, Wang Wei

机构信息

Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.

出版信息

J Thorac Dis. 2025 Apr 30;17(4):1977-1990. doi: 10.21037/jtd-2024-1992. Epub 2025 Apr 27.


DOI:10.21037/jtd-2024-1992
PMID:40400939
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12090150/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Acute myocardial injury (AMI) is a common complication in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD), often leading to a worse prognosis. Identifying modifiable risk factors for AMI in AECOPD is essential for improving outcomes, but these factors remain unclear. This study aims to explore the risk factors of AMI in AECOPD patients and identify those at high risk. METHODS: In this study, 437 inpatients with AECOPD were enrolled from the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, between January 2018 and October 2023. The AECOPD patients were divided into non-myocardial injury (non-MI) and AMI groups. Demographic information, clinical characteristics, electrocardiogram (ECG), and laboratory tests were collected. Univariate logistic regression analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were used to identify essential variables for multivariable logistic regression, which was then used to develop a nomogram. The nomogram was internally validated using the bootstrap method. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were employed to evaluate this nomogram's discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: Compared with the non-MI group, the AMI group had an older age, a faster heart rate, a more severe Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) grade, and a higher prevalence of hypercapnic respiratory failure (HRF), hypertension, arrhythmia, ischemic ECG changes, cardiac medications usage, serum electrolyte imbalances, and even acute kidney injury. Additionally, this group demonstrated significantly higher admission rates to the respiratory intensive care unit (RICU) and in-hospital mortality. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-TnI) levels were positively correlated with the risks of in-hospital mortality, RICU admission, and HRF (P<0.001). Furthermore, the AMI group showed elevated levels of inflammatory markers, such as the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (P<0.001). Conversely, hemoglobin, serum albumin, calcium ions, and chloride ions were significantly lower in this group (P<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified seven independent risk factors for AMI in AECOPD patients: cardiac medications usage, ischemic ECG changes, age, HRF, heart rate, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), and serum calcium. The nomogram model achieved an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.8882 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8525-0.9238] and demonstrated good internal validation (bootstrapped AUC =0.8885). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test had a nonsignificant P value of 0.16. Moreover, the DCA curves show that the model provided valuable clinical utility. CONCLUSIONS: Age, use of cardiac medications, ischemic ECG changes, HRF, heart rate, BUN, and serum calcium ions were independently associated with AMI in AECOPD patients. A clinical risk assessment model of AMI was developed based on independent risk factors.

摘要

背景:急性心肌损伤(AMI)是慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重(AECOPD)患者的常见并发症,常导致更差的预后。识别AECOPD患者中AMI的可改变危险因素对于改善预后至关重要,但这些因素仍不明确。本研究旨在探讨AECOPD患者发生AMI的危险因素,并识别高危患者。 方法:本研究纳入了2018年1月至2023年10月期间武汉大学中南医院呼吸与危重症医学科的437例AECOPD住院患者。将AECOPD患者分为非心肌损伤(non-MI)组和AMI组。收集人口统计学信息、临床特征、心电图(ECG)和实验室检查结果。采用单因素逻辑回归分析和最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)来识别多因素逻辑回归的关键变量,然后用于构建列线图。使用自助法对列线图进行内部验证。采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验和决策曲线分析(DCA)来评估该列线图的区分度、校准度和临床实用性。 结果:与非MI组相比,AMI组年龄更大、心率更快、慢性阻塞性肺疾病全球倡议(GOLD)分级更严重、高碳酸血症呼吸衰竭(HRF)、高血压、心律失常、缺血性ECG改变、使用心脏药物、血清电解质失衡以及急性肾损伤的患病率更高。此外,该组患者入住呼吸重症监护病房(RICU)的比例和院内死亡率显著更高。高敏心肌肌钙蛋白I(hs-TnI)水平与院内死亡率、RICU入住率和HRF风险呈正相关(P<0.001)。此外,AMI组的炎症标志物水平升高,如全身免疫炎症指数(SII)、全身炎症反应指数(SIRI)和中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)(P<0.001)。相反,该组患者的血红蛋白、血清白蛋白、钙离子和氯离子水平显著降低(P<0.001)。多因素逻辑回归分析确定了AECOPD患者发生AMI的七个独立危险因素:使用心脏药物、缺血性ECG改变、年龄、HRF、心率、血尿素氮(BUN)和血清钙。列线图模型的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.8882 [95%置信区间(CI):0.8525-0.9238],并显示出良好的内部验证(自助法AUC =0.8885)。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验的P值为0.16,无统计学意义。此外,DCA曲线表明该模型具有重要的临床实用性。 结论:年龄、使用心脏药物、缺血性ECG改变、HRF、心率、BUN和血清钙离子与AECOPD患者发生AMI独立相关。基于独立危险因素建立了AMI的临床风险评估模型。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f54/12090150/42093a1479bf/jtd-17-04-1977-f5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f54/12090150/9dbe136b0c68/jtd-17-04-1977-f1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f54/12090150/d9b6e4e4125d/jtd-17-04-1977-f2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f54/12090150/03d67452dfe8/jtd-17-04-1977-f3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f54/12090150/a53858638473/jtd-17-04-1977-f4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f54/12090150/42093a1479bf/jtd-17-04-1977-f5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f54/12090150/9dbe136b0c68/jtd-17-04-1977-f1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f54/12090150/d9b6e4e4125d/jtd-17-04-1977-f2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f54/12090150/03d67452dfe8/jtd-17-04-1977-f3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f54/12090150/a53858638473/jtd-17-04-1977-f4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f54/12090150/42093a1479bf/jtd-17-04-1977-f5.jpg

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引用本文的文献

[1]
Long-Term Impact of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Atrial Fibrillation on Post-Acute Myocardial Infarction Long-Term All-Cause Mortality: Insights from the SAMI III Project.

J Clin Med. 2025-8-21

本文引用的文献

[1]
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