Geospatial analysis of impact of climate change on potential habitat of Boswellia serrata Roxb. Ex Colebr in Eastern India.

Understanding the response of species' habitats to climate change is vital for their conservation and management. A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change is causing contraction in plant species' habitats, leading to declines in their natural populations. Habitat modeling has emerged as a powerful tool for studying the potential response of plant species to climate change. However, most studies have focused on climate scenarios represented by the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), with very few employing the novel shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Furthermore, these studies often lack proper ground validation and fail to integrate phytosociological evaluations for gaining a better insight into plant dispersal scenarios. This study aimed to fill these gaps by integrating extensive field surveys, a phytosociological evaluation of the study area, and using SSPs as proxy pathways. We modelled the potentially suitable habitats for a threatened medicinal tree Boswellia serrata Roxb. Ex Colebr in the subtropical eastern Indian region encompassing Jharkhand. Using MaxEnt, we predicted the potential suitable habitat range of B. serrata, for the current and future climatic scenarios IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6 and MPI-ESM1-2-HR proxied through the SSP 126, 245, 370 and 585. The study revealed that currently approximately 16,348 km (~20.51% of the study region) area serves as a suitable habitat for B. serrata. However, the findings indicate an overall ~9% decline in the suitable habitat range of B. serrata by 2060 in the region, and might become locally extinct in the northeastern part of Jharkhand. These findings have significant implications for both research and practical conservation efforts, providing new insight to the distribution ecology of B. serrata, and identifying priority areas for conservation interventions.