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1998 - 2018年中国老年人临终关怀模式的变化:年龄-时期-队列分析

Changes in end-of-life care models among Chinese older adults, 1998-2018: an age-period-cohort analysis.

作者信息

Hei Xiaoyan, Feng Tieying, Gong Chenxi

机构信息

School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China.

School of Social Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China.

出版信息

BMC Geriatr. 2025 Jun 2;25(1):399. doi: 10.1186/s12877-025-06050-0.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

As China’s older population continues to grow and unhealthy life expectancy gradually extends, the demand for end-of-life care has surged. However, research on end-of-life care models for Chinese older adults is still limited. This study explores the changes in end-of-life care models for older adults in China.

METHODS

We utilized data from 22,464 deceased older adults in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) from 1998 to 2018. End-of-life care models were determined based on the primary caregivers and living arrangements of the older adults during the end-of-life period. Using a hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) model, we analyzed the trends in age, period, and cohort for different care models, and examined gender and urban-rural differences.

RESULTS

With increasing age at the end of life, the probability of spousal care showed a downward trend, care provided by grandchildren showed an upward trend, care provided by relatives and friends followed a U-shaped curve, and there were no significant changes in the probability of care provided by children or formal care. The analysis of period effects revealed fluctuating upward trends in spousal care and care provided by children, while the remaining three care models showed downward trends. No significant cohort effects were observed for any of the care models. Regardless of age or period effects, older men were generally more likely to receive spousal care and care provided by relatives and friends than older women, while older women were more likely to receive care provided by children and grandchildren than older men. Urban-rural differences in both age and period effects exhibited varying trends across different care models.

CONCLUSIONS

The changes in end-of-life care models for Chinese older adults are influenced by both age and period effects. The sustainability of the child-centered care model, influenced by filial piety culture, is facing challenges, as the responsibility for end-of-life care has gradually expanded from children to a broader circle of caregivers. Future efforts should focus on developing a care model based on family caregiving, supplemented by formal care services. Additionally, older women and rural older adults are still at a disadvantage in accessing care services, and future policies should address this issue.

摘要

背景

随着中国老年人口持续增长,不健康预期寿命逐渐延长,临终关怀需求激增。然而,针对中国老年人临终关怀模式的研究仍然有限。本研究探讨中国老年人临终关怀模式的变化。

方法

我们使用了1998年至2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CLHLS)中22464名已故老年人的数据。临终关怀模式根据老年人临终期间的主要照料者和居住安排来确定。我们使用分层年龄-时期-队列(HAPC)模型,分析了不同照料模式在年龄、时期和队列方面的趋势,并考察了性别和城乡差异。

结果

随着临终年龄的增加,配偶照料的概率呈下降趋势,孙辈照料呈上升趋势,亲友照料呈U形曲线,子女照料或正式照料的概率无显著变化。时期效应分析显示,配偶照料和子女照料呈波动上升趋势,而其余三种照料模式呈下降趋势。任何一种照料模式均未观察到显著的队列效应。无论年龄或时期效应如何,老年男性通常比老年女性更有可能接受配偶照料和亲友照料,而老年女性比老年男性更有可能接受子女和孙辈的照料。年龄和时期效应的城乡差异在不同照料模式中呈现出不同的趋势。

结论

中国老年人临终关怀模式的变化受年龄和时期效应的影响。受孝道文化影响,以子女为中心的照料模式的可持续性面临挑战,因为临终关怀的责任已逐渐从子女扩大到更广泛的照料者群体。未来的努力应集中在发展以家庭照料为基础、辅以正式照料服务的照料模式。此外,老年女性和农村老年人在获得照料服务方面仍然处于劣势,未来政策应解决这一问题。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b02e/12128544/70c787acf4cd/12877_2025_6050_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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