BACKGROUND

This investigation proposes a machine learning framework leveraging preoperative MRI and CT imaging data to predict postoperative complications related to distal instrumentation (DIP) in degenerative lumbar scoliosis patients undergoing long-segment fusion procedures.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 136 patients, categorizing based on the development of DIP. Preoperative MRI and CT scans provided muscle function and bone density data, including the relative gross cross-sectional area and relative functional cross-sectional area of the multifidus, erector spinae, paraspinal extensor, psoas major muscles, the gross muscle fat index and functional muscle fat index, Hounsfield unit values of the lumbosacral region and the lower instrumented vertebra. Predictive factors for DIP were selected through stepwise LASSO regression. The filtered and all factors were incorporated into six machine learning algorithms twice, namely k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, support vector machine, random forest, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and Naïve Bayes, with tenfold cross-validation.

RESULTS

Among patients, 16.9% developed DIP, with the multifidus' functional cross-sectional area and lumbosacral region's Hounsfield unit value as significant predictors. The MLP model exhibited superior performance when all predictive factors were input, with an average AUC of 0.98 and recall rate of 0.90.

CONCLUSION

We compared various machine learning algorithms and constructed, trained, and validated predictive models based on muscle function and bone density-related variables obtained from preoperative CT and MRI, which could identify patients with high risk of DIP after long-segment spinal fusion surgery.