The dynamics and underlying factors shaping rural-urban connections for rural flood hazard susceptibility in Pakistan: the case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Floods exacerbate the vulnerability of rural communities with limited resources, while their impacts extend to nearby urban centres through interconnected socio-economic and infrastructural systems. Understanding these vulnerabilities is critical for mitigating disaster risks. Previous studies often overlooked the essential connections between rural and urban regions. This research examines how rural-urban connections change following a flood event, what factors influence these interactions, and how they contribute to the vulnerability of rural areas after a flood in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The study employed convenience and snowball sampling techniques to select 35 respondents with relevant disaster management and recovery expertise. The data were collected through face-to-face interviews and personal observations to ensure a diverse range of participants' responses. The thematic data analysis method was chosen to highlight the significance of participants' experiences. The study findings revealed that the rural population of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province heavily depends on nearby cities for essential resources and services (food, healthcare, and employment opportunities) significantly when local resources are depleted due to flooding. Floods caused serious repercussions to the rural-urban linkages through people (e.g., human mobility patterns, evacuation and displacement, and migration), information (early warning signals, post-disaster information support, financial aid coordination and technical assistance for reconstruction, health and sanitation management, logistics and supply chain restoration), Finance (resources inflow, and insurance coverage), and goods and relief services (urban areas as coordination hubs for disaster response, service delivery and specialized support systems, long-term recovery and resilience building, and economic interdependence and systemic vulnerabilities). However, this dependence diminishes when villages become self-reliant in accessing information, credit, goods, and market services. Rural areas are more vulnerable due to their weaker infrastructure, limited institutional capacity, and dependence on natural resources. In contrast, urban areas encounter challenges such as overcrowding, resource allocation, and maintaining service continuity when accommodating displaced populations. This study also identifies the primary attributes, including social (demography-population size, age, gender, health status, education, and social networks), economic (income levels and rural-urban connectivity, occupational sector and interaction patterns, income inequality and migration dynamics, occupation-specific vulnerability profiles), Institutional (strengthening rural-urban resilience to floods, local governance and flood risk management initiatives, enhancing emergency response and community preparedness, institutional coordination and disaster risk reduction strategies, leveraging technology and early warning systems) and environmental dimensions (river bodies, soil quality, erosion level, and water availability) which also affected the influence of rural-urban connections and their vulnerability to flood events across the selected districts. The current study findings offer important insights for policymakers to create integrated flood risk management strategies that strengthen rural infrastructure, improve early warning systems, and expand financial inclusion, stressing the significance of coordinated rural-urban disaster planning to direct displacement, guarantee fair resource allocation, and foster long-lasting resilience.