Li Yayi, Sun Xiaoli, Hu Jianxiong, Chen Zhiqing, Zhu Qijiong, Huang Yixiang, Li Yilin, Xiao Xinjie, Zhong Xinqi, He Guanhao, Huang Cunrui, Ma Wenjun, Liu Tao
Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China; China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China; Key Laboratory of Viral Pathogenesis & Infection Prevention and Control, Jinan University, Ministry of Education, Guangzhou, China.
Gynecology Department, Guangdong Women and Children Hospital, Guangzhou, China.
Environ Int. 2025 Jul;201:109608. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2025.109608. Epub 2025 Jun 14.
The increasing frequency of heatwaves poses significant risks for preterm birth (PTB). However, the extent of the disease and economic burdens attributable to heatwave-related PTB in China remains uncertain.
We defined a heatwave event as two or more consecutive days in which the daily maximum temperature exceeded the 90th percentile during 1995-2014, and estimated the burdens of heatwave-related PTB under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, including cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and the value of a statistical life (VSL) from 2015 to 2100, at the city level in China.
The number of heatwave-related PTBs showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2015 to 2100 under three SSP scenarios. By the 2090 s, heatwave-related PTB cases per million births are estimated at 2,314.64 (95 %CI: 1,112.30, 3,518.23), 4,335.15 (95 %CI: 2,651.81, 6,020.31) and 5,217.16 (95 %CI: 3,606.26, 6,829.17) under SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. From the 2020 s to 2090 s, the number of attributable deaths in infants under 1 year is projected to decrease from 19.91 (95 % CI: 11.37, 28.32) to 6.58 (95 % CI: 4.61, 8.51) thousand under SSP585 scenario. Attributable DALY rate is projected to increase after 2023, with DALY mainly in the Sichuan Basin and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. Population-adjusted attributable VSL is projected to increase before the 2040s and then stabilize under SSP126 and SSP370, while showing a sustainedly increasing trend during the 2000s-2090s under SSP585.
Heatwaves would impose a significant disease burden from PTB and translate into substantial economic burden, particularly under higher emission scenarios.
热浪发生频率的增加对早产构成了重大风险。然而，在中国，与热浪相关的早产所致疾病负担和经济负担程度仍不确定。
我们将热浪事件定义为在1995 - 2014年期间连续两天或更多天每日最高气温超过第90百分位数，并估计了中国城市层面在不同共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景下与热浪相关的早产负担，包括病例数、死亡数、伤残调整生命年（DALY）以及2015年至2100年的统计生命价值（VSL）。
在三种SSP情景下，2015年至2100年与热浪相关的早产数量呈波动上升趋势。到2090年代，在SSP126、SSP370和SSP585情景下，每百万例出生中与热浪相关的早产病例估计分别为2314.64（95%CI：1112.30，3518.23）、4335.15（95%CI：2651.81，6020.31）和5217.16（95%CI：3606.26，6829.17）。在SSP585情景下，从2020年代到2090年代，1岁以下婴儿的归因死亡数预计将从19910例（95%CI：11370，28320）降至6580例（95%CI：4610，8510）。预计2023年后归因DALY率将上升，DALY主要集中在四川盆地和京津冀城市群。在SSP126和SSP370情景下，人口调整归因VSL预计在2040年代前上升然后稳定，而在SSP585情景下在2000年代至2090年代呈持续上升趋势。
热浪将给早产带来重大疾病负担，并转化为巨大经济负担，尤其是在高排放情景下。
