Li Xueke, Mann Michael E, Wehner Michael F, Christiansen Shannon
Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104.
Applied Mathematics and Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Jun 24;122(25):e2504482122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2504482122. Epub 2025 Jun 16.
We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land-sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming.
我们证明,在过去半个世纪里,行星波共振事件的频率增加了两倍,这与持续的北半球夏季极端天气的增加相吻合。这种增加与有利于这些事件的潜在气候条件的变化相一致,包括北极变暖加剧和陆海热对比。我们还观察到,在强厄尔尼诺事件的成熟阶段之后,共振放大事件的发生率增加,这表明此类事件可能以有利于大规模准静止波型和准共振波放大的方式使平均状态条件处于预处理状态。由于当前一代气候模型没有很好地捕捉到人为变暖对准共振放大的影响,因此模型很可能低估了潜在的增加幅度,这表明随着气候持续变暖,持续的极端夏季天气事件的风险甚至更大。