Connors Kaela, Rivera Juan A, Alexander Peter, Jaacks Lindsay M, Batis Carolina, Stern Dalia, Lajous Martín, Colchero M Arantxa
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems, University of Edinburgh, Midlothian, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2025 Jun 27;20(6):e0326616. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0326616. eCollection 2025.
Consumption of red and processed meat is above sustainable and healthy dietary targets in Mexico. Policies to promote greater adherence such as taxing meat are needed to reduce consumption. Here, we evaluated how price increases to red and processed meat could shift consumption for meat as well as other key food groups.
Using data from the Mexican National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (2018, 2020, 2022), we estimated own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for 10 food groups. These were used to predict changes in quantity demanded of each food group according to price increase scenarios.
Price increases to meat increased demand for substitutes such as fruits and vegetables, legumes, poultry, and seafood, and reduced demand for salty snacks, sweets and sugary beverages. Substantial increases to the price of processed meat markedly reduced processed meat consumption, increased consumption of protein- and nutrient-rich foods, and resulted in more modest levels of red meat consumption. Lower-income groups were more sensitive to price increases but still met dietary recommendations for meat and substituted these foods with alternatives such as legumes and seafood.
Increasing the price of red and processed meat through a tax may promote greater adherence to sustainable and healthy dietary targets in Mexico. It simultaneously increased demand for healthier substitutes, and reduced demand for unhealthy complements. Substantially raising the price of processed meat only may be an effective strategy for addressing diet-related risk factors, while delivering environmental benefits. Additionally, meat taxes have the potential to promote improvements in diet quality and equitable health outcomes.
在墨西哥，红肉和加工肉的消费量超过了可持续和健康饮食目标。需要采取诸如对肉类征税等政策来促进更高的依从性，以减少消费。在此，我们评估了红肉和加工肉价格上涨如何改变肉类以及其他主要食物组的消费。
利用墨西哥国家家庭收入和支出调查（2018年、2020年、2022年）的数据，我们估计了10种食物组的自身价格弹性和交叉价格弹性。这些弹性被用于根据价格上涨情景预测每个食物组的需求量变化。
肉类价格上涨增加了对水果、蔬菜、豆类、家禽和海鲜等替代品的需求，并减少了对咸味零食、糖果和含糖饮料的需求。加工肉价格大幅上涨显著降低了加工肉的消费量，增加了富含蛋白质和营养的食物的消费量，并使红肉消费量有所适度下降。低收入群体对价格上涨更为敏感，但仍能满足肉类的饮食建议，并以豆类和海鲜等替代品替代这些食物。
通过征税提高红肉和加工肉的价格可能会促进墨西哥更好地遵守可持续和健康的饮食目标。这同时增加了对更健康替代品的需求，并减少了对不健康补充品的需求。仅大幅提高加工肉的价格可能是解决与饮食相关的风险因素并带来环境效益的有效策略。此外，肉类税有潜力促进饮食质量的改善和公平的健康结果。
