Mensforth R P, Lovejoy C O
Am J Phys Anthropol. 1985 Sep;68(1):87-106. doi: 10.1002/ajpa.1330680109.
Paleodemographic analyses based on estimates of skeletal age at death consistently report high levels of young adult mortality with few individuals living in excess of 50 years. Critics assert these data indicate systematic underaging of adults and justifiably remark that criteria for estimating skeletal age at death may be unreliable, age determinations are too frequently based on one or two criteria alone, and adult paleodemographic age profiles often mimic the age distribution of the modern population from which an age indicator's standards were originally derived. This study reports a series of tests based on well-documented biological aging phenomena that can be used to investigate potential effects of systematic underaging in adults, assuming the skeletal population is of sufficient size to permit such tests. These include patterns of third decade sternal clavicular epiphyseal fusion, multiple age and sex criteria associated with cortical bone dynamics, and fractures known to occur throughout the entire adult ages range. These phenomena are examined here for the Libben site skeletal population where adult age at death was determined by the multifactorial summary age technique. None of the biological criteria reported here were used in the Libben summary age analysis and thus serve as an independent test of accuracy in age determination. In addition, the summary age method has recently been applied to a series of modern skeletons of known age (Todd samples 1 and 2). Age standards for criteria employed with Libben and Todd 1 were identical. Since Todd 1 displayed underaging in older adults, a second Libben age distribution adjusted for Todd 1 bias was generated for comparison. A third Libben adult survivorship profile based on a Coale and Demeny West level 3 mortality experience, considered by some to be a more realistic model for skeletal populations, was produced for comparison. For all criteria examined, original Libben summary ages provided superior concordance with known patterns of biological aging in human populations. While Libben ages adjusted for Todd 1 bias were slightly better in the third decade, both Todd 1 adjusted and Coale and Demeny West level 3 age distributions produced unrealistic patterns of biological aging for individuals greater than 35 years. Implications of these results are discussed.
基于死亡时骨骼年龄估计的古人口统计学分析一直报告称,年轻成年人的死亡率很高,很少有人能活到50岁以上。批评者断言,这些数据表明成年人的年龄被系统性低估,并且有理由指出,用于估计死亡时骨骼年龄的标准可能不可靠,年龄判定过于频繁地仅基于一两个标准,而且成人古人口统计学年龄分布常常模仿最初从中得出年龄指标标准的现代人群的年龄分布。本研究报告了一系列基于充分记录的生物衰老现象的测试,这些测试可用于调查成年人年龄系统性低估的潜在影响,前提是骨骼样本数量足够大以允许进行此类测试。这些现象包括三十多岁时胸骨锁骨骨骺融合的模式、与皮质骨动态相关的多种年龄和性别标准,以及已知在整个成年年龄范围内都会发生的骨折。在此针对利本遗址的骨骼样本研究了这些现象,其中成年人的死亡年龄是通过多因素汇总年龄技术确定的。这里报告的生物标准均未用于利本汇总年龄分析,因此可作为年龄判定准确性的独立测试。此外,汇总年龄方法最近已应用于一系列已知年龄的现代骨骼(托德样本1和2)。利本和托德1所采用标准的年龄标准是相同的。由于托德1显示老年人存在年龄低估,因此生成了针对托德1偏差进行调整的第二个利本年龄分布用于比较。还生成了基于科尔和德梅尼西水平3死亡率经验的第三个利本成年人存活曲线,有些人认为这是骨骼样本更现实的模型,用于比较。对于所研究的所有标准,原始的利本汇总年龄与人类种群中已知的生物衰老模式具有更好的一致性。虽然针对托德1偏差调整后的利本年龄在三十多岁时略好一些,但对于35岁以上的个体,托德1调整后的年龄分布以及科尔和德梅尼西水平3年龄分布都产生了不现实的生物衰老模式。讨论了这些结果的意义。