高剂量甲氨蝶呤输注的剂量预测。第2部分：甲氨蝶呤清除率的贝叶斯估计。

Dosage predictions in high-dose methotrexate infusions. Part 2: Bayesian estimation of methotrexate clearance.

作者信息

Bruno R, Iliadis A, Favre R, Lena N, Imbert A M, Cano J P

出版信息

Cancer Drug Deliv. 1985 Fall;2(4):277-83. doi: 10.1089/cdd.1985.2.277.

DOI:10.1089/cdd.1985.2.277

Abstract

Population pharmacokinetics of methotrexate (MTX) was evaluated from intravenous test-dose (TD) data (n = 20 corresponding to 174 measured samples). Bayesian prediction of MTX clearance from TD experiments combining population data with measured levels (at times 0.5 and 6 h) was found to be feasible in routine situations with good performance (root mean squared error : rmse (precision) = 1.14 1.h-1 (11.2%) and mean error : me (bias) = 0.06 1.h-1 (NS) relatively to weighted least-square estimates, n = 50). The precision of Bayesian prediction was comparable to that of the model independent which is used in routine practice and involves 9 measured levels over 30 h, (rmse = 1.35 1.h-1 (10.9%), n = 50). However, the routine method presented a significative bias (me = -0.81 1.h-1, n = 50).

摘要

从静脉注射试验剂量（TD）数据（n = 20，对应174个测量样本）评估了甲氨蝶呤（MTX）的群体药代动力学。发现在常规情况下，将群体数据与测量水平（在0.5小时和6小时）相结合，通过TD实验对MTX清除率进行贝叶斯预测是可行的，且性能良好（均方根误差：rmse（精密度）= 1.14 l·h⁻¹（11.2%），平均误差：me（偏差）= 0.06 l·h⁻¹（无显著性差异），相对于加权最小二乘法估计值，n = 50）。贝叶斯预测的精密度与常规实践中使用的独立模型相当，该独立模型在30小时内涉及9个测量水平（rmse = 1.35 l·h⁻¹（10.9%），n = 50）。然而，常规方法存在显著偏差（me = -0.81 l·h⁻¹，n = 50）。