Gostimirovic Milos, Gojkovic Bukarica Ljiljana, Rajkovic Jovana, Zivkovic Igor, Bukarica Ana, Terzic Dusko
Institute for Pharmacology, Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia.
Institute for Cardiovascular Diseases Dedinje, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia.
Healthcare (Basel). 2025 Jul 2;13(13):1589. doi: 10.3390/healthcare13131589.
: The aim of the study is to determine whether environmental and climatic factors (air quality, precipitation rates, and air temperatures) alongside specific public health measures (social distancing and vaccination) have influenced total number of SARS CoV-2 positive cases (TOTAL CASES) and deaths (TOTAL DEATHS) from COVID-19 infection in the Republic of Serbia (RS). : An observational, retrospective study was conducted, covering the following three-year period in the RS: I (1 March 2020-1 March 2021); II (1 March 2021-1 March 2022); and III (1 March 2022-1 March 2023). Air quality was expressed as the values of the air quality index (AQI) and the concentrations of particulate matter 2.5 µm (PM). Precipitation rates (PREC) were expressed as the average monthly amount of rainfall (mm), while average air temperatures (AIR TEMP) were expressed in °C. Data were collected from relevant official and publicly available national and international resources. Data regarding the COVID-19 pandemic were collected from the World Health Organization. : No differences between the periods were observed for the average values of AIR TEMP (11.2-12.2 °C), PREC (56.1-66.8 mm), and AQI (57.2-58.8), while the average values of PM significantly decreased in the III period (21.2 compared to 25.2, = 0.03). Both TOTAL CASES and TOTAL DEATHS from COVID-19 infection showed positive correlation with the AQI and PM and a negative correlation with the AIR TEMP. The correlation coefficient was strongest between TOTAL DEATHS and the AIR TEMP in the II period (r = -0.7; = 0.007). The extent of rainfall and vaccination rates did not affect any of the observed variables. No differences in TOTAL CASES and TOTAL DEATHS were observed between the periods of increased social measures and other months, while both statistically significantly increased during the vaccination period compared to months without the vaccination campaign ( < 0.02, for both). : Air quality, more precisely AQI and PM and average air temperatures, but no precipitation rates, influenced the number of TOTAL CASES and TOTAL DEATHS from COVID-19 infection. These were the highest during the vaccination period, but vaccination could be considered as a confounding factor since the intensive vaccination campaign was conducted during the most severe phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures did not reduce the number of TOTAL CASES or TOTAL DEATHS during the COVID-19 pandemic.
本研究的目的是确定环境和气候因素（空气质量、降水率和气温）以及特定的公共卫生措施（社交距离和疫苗接种）是否对塞尔维亚共和国（RS）新冠病毒2型阳性病例总数（总病例数）和新冠病毒感染死亡总数（总死亡数）产生了影响。
开展了一项观察性回顾研究，涵盖RS的以下三年时间段：I（2020年3月1日至2021年3月1日）；II（2021年3月1日至2022年3月1日）；以及III（2022年3月1日至2023年3月1日）。空气质量用空气质量指数（AQI）值和2.5微米颗粒物（PM）浓度表示。降水率（PREC）用月平均降雨量（毫米）表示，而平均气温（AIR TEMP）用摄氏度表示。数据从相关官方及公开可用的国家和国际资源收集。关于新冠疫情的数据从世界卫生组织收集。
在各时间段之间，未观察到平均气温（11.2 - 12.2°C）、降水率（56.1 - 66.8毫米）和AQI（57.2 - 58.8）的平均值有差异，而在III期PM的平均值显著下降（21.2，相比之下之前为25.2，P = 0.03）。新冠病毒感染的总病例数和总死亡数均与AQI和PM呈正相关，与气温呈负相关。在II期，总死亡数与气温之间的相关系数最强（r = -0.7；P = 0.007）。降雨程度和疫苗接种率未影响任何观察变量。在加强社交措施的时间段与其他月份之间，未观察到总病例数和总死亡数有差异，而与未开展疫苗接种活动的月份相比，在疫苗接种期间两者均有统计学显著增加（两者P均< 0.02）。
空气质量，更确切地说是AQI、PM和平均气温，但不是降水率，影响了新冠病毒感染的总病例数和总死亡数。这些在疫苗接种期间最高，但疫苗接种可被视为一个混杂因素，因为密集的疫苗接种活动是在新冠疫情最严重阶段进行的。在新冠疫情期间，社交距离措施并未减少总病例数或总死亡数。
