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2022年泸定6.6级地震的详细三维断层模型揭示了青藏高原东南部的地震危险潜力。

Detailed three-dimensional fault model of the 2022 M 6.6 Luding earthquake reveals seismic hazard potential in the southeastern Tibetan plateau.

作者信息

Xu Fang, Lu Renqi, Zhang Jinyu, Klinger Yann, Liu Yiduo, Yang Xuhang, Liu Guanshen, Wang Wei, Guo Zhaowu

机构信息

State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics and Forecasting, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China.

Universite Paris Cite, Institut Physique du Globe de Paris, CNRS, Paris, France.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 16;15(1):25799. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-11553-2.

Abstract

The detailed 3D fault model and further seismic rupture behavior analysis and fault mechanics simulation based on it are important and meaningful. A strong Mw 6.6 earthquake occurred in Luding, Sichuan, on 5 September 2022, the epicenter was located near the Y-shaped junction of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone (XSHF), the Longmen Shan Fault Zone (LMSF), and the Anninghe Fault Zone (ANHF). To date, a detailed 3D fault model has not been established for this earthquake, preventing a 3D Coulomb stress change (ΔCFS) calculation for further seismic potential analysis. Therefore, first we build a detailed 3D fault model of the earthquake and then we compute ΔCFS in the surrounding areas. Based on 3D modeling technics, we establish a 3D model of the main faults using previously published relocated earthquake catalog and focal mechanism solutions; including the Moxi segment (f) of the XSHF, the Daduhe fault (f) and two previously unknown faults (f and f). The 3D ΔCFS indicates that the strike-slip mainshock of the Luding earthquake significantly triggered two M > 5 dip-slip aftershocks. Moreover, it caused a remarkable increase in ΔCFS and hence a notable enhancement in seismic hazard in the northern ANHF.

摘要

详细的三维断层模型以及基于该模型的进一步地震破裂行为分析和断层力学模拟具有重要意义。2022年9月5日,四川泸定发生了Mw 6.6级强烈地震,震中位于鲜水河断裂带(XSHF)、龙门山断裂带(LMSF)和安宁河断裂带(ANHF)的Y形交汇处附近。迄今为止,尚未针对此次地震建立详细的三维断层模型,这阻碍了通过计算三维库仑应力变化(ΔCFS)来进行进一步的地震潜在分析。因此,我们首先构建了此次地震的详细三维断层模型,然后计算了周边地区的ΔCFS。基于三维建模技术,我们利用先前发表的重新定位的地震目录和震源机制解建立了主要断层的三维模型;包括XSHF的磨西段(f)、大渡河断裂(f)以及两条先前未知的断层(f和f)。三维ΔCFS表明,泸定地震的走滑型主震显著触发了两次震级大于5级的倾滑型余震。此外,它还导致ΔCFS显著增加,从而使ANHF北部的地震危险性显著增强。

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