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预测食管癌切除术后谵妄的列线图模型的开发与验证

Development and validation of a nomogram model to predict postoperative delirium after resection of esophageal cancer.

作者信息

Shen Xia, Yang Long, Jiang Lei, Wang Qian, Liu Yuan-Yuan, Song Shao-Zheng, Zhang Jian-Feng, Cai Ping, Liu Zhun-Zhun

机构信息

Department of Nursing, Nursing School of Wuxi Taihu University, 68 Qianrong Rode, Binhu District, Wuxi, China.

Department of Pediatric Cardiothoracic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, 137 Li Yu Shan Road, Urumqi, 830054, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 21;15(1):26394. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-11255-9.


DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-11255-9
PMID:40691213
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12280112/
Abstract

The study aimed to establish and validate a nomogram model to predict postoperative delirium (POD) among esophageal cancer resection patients. Clinical data of 396 patients with esophageal cancer who underwent esophagectomy from November 2020 to June 2023 in the electronic medical records of cardiothoracic Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University. Participants were randomly divided into training and testing sets in a 7:3 ratio. Predictors were screened by Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and a nomogram model was built. The discrimination and consistency of the model were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C-statistic, Brier score, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). The results were validated using 1000 bootstraps resampling internal validation and testing set. Among 32 potential predictors, the final prediction model included 6 variables: postoperative pain, postoperative infection, dexmedetomidine use, propofol use, duration of mechanical ventilation, and Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI). The model showed a good discrimination with an AUC of 0.919 (95% CI: 0.885- 0.953) in the training set, and adjusted to 0.911 (95% CI: 0.878- 0.944) and 0.871 (95% CI: 0.802- 0.940) in the internal validation and the testing set, respectively. ROC curves, calibration curves, DCA curves, C-statistic, Brier score and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed excellent model performance. This study successfully established and validated the first POD prediction model for patients with esophageal cancer resection. It could accurately predict the occurrence of POD and effectively identify the high-risk patients, which is of great significance for improving the risk stratification of the population and for implementing targeted prevention intervention measures.

摘要

本研究旨在建立并验证一种列线图模型,以预测食管癌切除患者术后谵妄(POD)的发生情况。选取江南大学附属医院心胸外科2020年11月至2023年6月行食管癌切除术的396例患者的临床资料。参与者按7:3的比例随机分为训练集和测试集。通过最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归分析筛选预测因素,并建立列线图模型。使用受试者操作特征曲线(AUC)下面积、C统计量、Brier评分、Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验、校准曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)评估模型的辨别力和一致性。结果通过1000次自举重采样内部验证和测试集进行验证。在32个潜在预测因素中,最终预测模型包括6个变量:术后疼痛、术后感染、右美托咪定使用、丙泊酚使用、机械通气时间和预后营养指数(PNI)。该模型在训练集中显示出良好的辨别力,AUC为0.919(95%CI:0.885 - 0.953),在内部验证集和测试集中分别调整为0.911(95%CI:0.878 - 0.944)和0.871(95%CI:0.802 - 0.940)。ROC曲线、校准曲线、DCA曲线、C统计量、Brier评分和Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验均显示模型性能优异。本研究成功建立并验证了首个用于食管癌切除患者的POD预测模型。它能够准确预测POD的发生,并有效识别高危患者,这对于改善人群风险分层以及实施针对性的预防干预措施具有重要意义。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/97fc/12280112/220528ac4166/41598_2025_11255_Fig7_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/97fc/12280112/220528ac4166/41598_2025_11255_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/97fc/12280112/a588b635d770/41598_2025_11255_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/97fc/12280112/c33293dd43ab/41598_2025_11255_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/97fc/12280112/06bd6733e7b0/41598_2025_11255_Fig3_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/97fc/12280112/c16b2c8790bc/41598_2025_11255_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/97fc/12280112/37ca618841be/41598_2025_11255_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/97fc/12280112/220528ac4166/41598_2025_11255_Fig7_HTML.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Development and validation of a nomogram model to predict postoperative delirium after resection of esophageal cancer.

Sci Rep. 2025-7-21

[2]
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[6]
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[9]
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[10]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
Prediction of incidence of neurological disorders in HIV-infected persons in Taiwan: a nested case-control study.

BMC Infect Dis. 2023-11-4

[2]
Association between Malnutrition and Delirium in Older Chronic Kidney Disease Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Units: A Data Linkage Study.

J Nutr Health Aging. 2023

[3]
A nomogram diagnostic cardiovascular disease in patients with erythrodermic psoriasis in Chinese.

Front Immunol. 2023

[4]
Biomarkers for Delirium: The Search Continues.

Anesth Analg. 2023-3-1

[5]
Association of preoperative prognostic nutritional index with risk of postoperative delirium: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Front Med (Lausanne). 2023-1-9

[6]
Risk factors and consequences of post-esophagectomy delirium: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Dis Esophagus. 2023-7-27

[7]
Premedication Propofol Dose to Prevent Emergency Delirium.

Iran J Psychiatry. 2022-7

[8]
Perioperative dexmedetomidine reduces delirium after coronary artery bypass graft surgery: A prospective, single-blind, observational study.

Ann Card Anaesth. 2022

[9]
Power Analysis for the Wald, LR, Score, and Gradient Tests in a Marginal Maximum Likelihood Framework: Applications in IRT.

Psychometrika. 2023-12

[10]
The impact of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in gastric cancer.

Langenbecks Arch Surg. 2022-11

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