Adams Loren L, Jones Vanya, Webster Daniel W, Desjardins Michael R, Crifasi Cassandra K
Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Inj Epidemiol. 2025 Aug 8;12(1):48. doi: 10.1186/s40621-025-00590-0.
Endemic levels of community firearm violence in United States cities disproportionately burden certain sociodemographic groups. Nonfatal injuries are an understudied aspect of firearm violence. Police data in a large and heterogenous place like New York City (NYC) provide the unique opportunity to use a single data source to measure fatal and nonfatal community firearm violence.
The study analyzed epidemiologic trends in fatal and nonfatal community firearm violence using the publicly available New York Police Department (NYPD) Shooting Incident Dataset from 2019 to 2023. The analyses tabulated shooting victims by sociodemographic variables (age group, race and ethnicity, and sex) and case fatality rates, mapped shootings by census tract, and described social determinants of health (SDOH)-poverty, educational attainment, unemployment-in the census tracts where shootings occurred.
From 2019 to 2023, the annual average number of shooting victims in NYC was 1,578. Shootings doubled from 2019 to 2020 though trended downward from 2021 to 2022 to 2023. Four out of five shootings were nonfatal. Males, people ages 18-24, and non-Hispanic Black people in NYC experienced the greatest proportion of shootings. Shootings coincided with census tracts also experiencing above median percentages of adverse SDOH (i.e., highest levels of unemployment, poverty, and low educational attainment).
Nonfatal injuries are an important component of community firearm violence to monitor. The findings identify inequities in community firearm violence by sex, age group, and race and ethnicity in NYC. One contributor to racial inequities in violence is the impact of place-based SDOH in certain NYC neighborhoods.
This study leverages NYPD data to estimate the full magnitude of violence by tracking nonfatal in addition to fatal injuries. The study emphasizes the need for researchers to go beyond individual demography and better understand the place-based social determinants of firearm violence.
美国城市中地方性社区枪支暴力水平给某些社会人口群体带来了不成比例的负担。非致命伤害是枪支暴力中一个研究较少的方面。在纽约市（NYC）这样一个规模大且多样化的地方，警方数据提供了一个独特的机会，可利用单一数据源来衡量致命和非致命的社区枪支暴力。
该研究使用纽约警察局（NYPD）2019年至2023年公开的枪击事件数据集，分析致命和非致命社区枪支暴力的流行病学趋势。分析按社会人口变量（年龄组、种族和族裔、性别）和病死率列出枪击受害者，按普查区绘制枪击事件地图，并描述枪击事件发生的普查区的健康社会决定因素（SDOH）——贫困、教育程度、失业率。
2019年至2023年，纽约市每年枪击受害者的平均数量为1578人。枪击事件从2019年到2020年翻倍，但从2021年到2022年再到2023年呈下降趋势。五分之四的枪击事件是非致命的。纽约市的男性、18至24岁的人群以及非西班牙裔黑人经历的枪击事件比例最高。枪击事件还与普查区中不良SDOH（即最高水平的失业、贫困和低教育程度）比例高于中位数的情况相吻合。
非致命伤害是社区枪支暴力监测的一个重要组成部分。研究结果确定了纽约市社区枪支暴力在性别、年龄组以及种族和族裔方面的不平等现象。暴力中种族不平等的一个促成因素是纽约市某些社区基于地点的SDOH的影响。
本研究利用纽约警察局的数据，通过跟踪致命伤和非致命伤来估计暴力的总体规模。该研究强调研究人员需要超越个体人口统计学，更好地理解基于地点的枪支暴力社会决定因素。
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