Suleimenova Madina, Abzaliyev Kuat, Manapova Ainur, Mansurova Madina, Abzaliyeva Symbat, Doskozhayeva Saule, Bugibayeva Akbota, Kurmanova Almagul, Sundetova Diana, Abdykassymova Merey, Sagalbayeva Ulzhas
Department of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence, Faculty of Information Technology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan.
Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Healthcare, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan.
Diagnostics (Basel). 2025 Jul 29;15(15):1903. doi: 10.3390/diagnostics15151903.
: This study presents an innovative approach to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction based on a comprehensive analysis of clinical, immunological and biochemical markers using mathematical modelling and machine learning methods. Baseline data include indices of humoral and cellular immunity (CD59, CD16, IL-10, CD14, CD19, CD8, CD4, etc.), cytokines and markers of cardiovascular disease, inflammatory markers (TNF, GM-CSF, CRP), growth and angiogenesis factors (VEGF, PGF), proteins involved in apoptosis and cytotoxicity (perforin, CD95), as well as indices of liver function, kidney function, oxidative stress and heart failure (albumin, cystatin C, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), superoxide dismutase (SOD), C-reactive protein (CRP), cholinesterase (ChE), cholesterol, and glomerular filtration rate (GFR)). Clinical and behavioural risk factors were also considered: arterial hypertension (AH), previous myocardial infarction (PICS), aortocoronary bypass surgery (CABG) and/or stenting, coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF), atrioventricular block (AB block), and diabetes mellitus (DM), as well as lifestyle (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity level), education, and body mass index (BMI). : The study included 52 patients aged 65 years and older. Based on the clinical, biochemical and immunological data obtained, a model for predicting the risk of premature cardiovascular aging was developed using mathematical modelling and machine learning methods. The aim of the study was to develop a predictive model allowing for the early detection of predisposition to the development of CVDs and their complications. Numerical methods of mathematical modelling, including Runge-Kutta, Adams-Bashforth and backward-directed Euler methods, were used to solve the prediction problem, which made it possible to describe the dynamics of changes in biomarkers and patients' condition over time with high accuracy. : HLA-DR (50%), CD14 (41%) and CD16 (38%) showed the highest association with aging processes. BMI was correlated with placental growth factor (37%). The glomerular filtration rate was positively associated with physical activity (47%), whereas SOD activity was negatively correlated with it (48%), reflecting a decline in antioxidant defence. : The obtained results allow for improving the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, and form personalised recommendations for the prevention and correction of its development.
本研究基于对临床、免疫和生化标志物的综合分析,采用数学建模和机器学习方法,提出了一种创新的心血管疾病(CVD)风险预测方法。基线数据包括体液和细胞免疫指标(CD59、CD16、IL-10、CD14、CD19、CD8、CD4等)、细胞因子和心血管疾病标志物、炎症标志物(TNF、GM-CSF、CRP)、生长和血管生成因子(VEGF、PGF)、参与细胞凋亡和细胞毒性的蛋白质(穿孔素、CD95),以及肝功能、肾功能、氧化应激和心力衰竭指标(白蛋白、胱抑素C、N末端B型利钠肽原(NT-proBNP)、超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、C反应蛋白(CRP)、胆碱酯酶(ChE)、胆固醇和肾小球滤过率(GFR))。还考虑了临床和行为风险因素:动脉高血压(AH)、既往心肌梗死(PICS)、主动脉冠状动脉搭桥手术(CABG)和/或支架置入术、冠心病(CHD)、心房颤动(AF)、房室传导阻滞(AB阻滞)和糖尿病(DM),以及生活方式(吸烟、饮酒、身体活动水平)、教育程度和体重指数(BMI)。
该研究纳入了52名65岁及以上的患者。基于获得的临床、生化和免疫数据,采用数学建模和机器学习方法建立了一个预测心血管过早衰老风险的模型。该研究的目的是开发一种预测模型,以便能够早期检测出发生心血管疾病及其并发症的易感性。采用数学建模的数值方法,包括龙格-库塔法、亚当斯-巴什福思法和后向欧拉法来解决预测问题,从而能够高精度地描述生物标志物和患者病情随时间的变化动态。
HLA-DR(50%)、CD14(41%)和CD16(38%)与衰老过程的关联最为密切。BMI与胎盘生长因子相关(37%)。肾小球滤过率与身体活动呈正相关(47%),而SOD活性与之呈负相关(48%),反映出抗氧化防御能力下降。
所获得的结果有助于提高心血管风险预测的准确性,并形成针对其预防和发展纠正的个性化建议。