Sun Yuan, Chen Han Y H, Chen Xin, Hisano Masumi, Chen Xinli, Reich Peter B
Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Bioresources of Saline Soils, Yancheng Teachers University, Yancheng 224002, China.
Faculty of Natural Resources Management, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, ON P7B 5E1, Canada.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Sep 2;122(35):e2426200122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2426200122. Epub 2025 Aug 25.
Soil microbial diversity is crucial to sustaining ecosystem productivity and improving carbon sequestration. Global temperature continues to rise, but how climate warming affects microbial diversity and its capacity to sequester soil organic carbon (SOC) remains uncertain. Here, by conducting a global meta-analysis with 251 paired observations from 102 studies, we showed that, on average, warming reduced bacterial and fungal diversity (measured by richness and Shannon index) by 16.0 and 19.7%, respectively, and SOC by 18.1%. The negative responses of both soil bacterial and fungal diversity to warming became more pronounced with increasing warming magnitude, experimental duration, and decreasing soil nitrogen availability. Under the worst-case climate warming scenario (2010 to 2070, 3.4 increase in °C), soil bacterial diversity and fungal diversity are projected to reduce by 56% and 81%, respectively, over 60 y. Importantly, in addition to the direct impact of warming on SOC, warming-induced declines in microbial diversity also contributed to SOC losses. We highlight that prolonged warming could substantially reduce soil microbial diversity and decrease SOC sequestration, accelerating future warming and underscoring the urgent need for decisive actions to mitigate global climate change.
土壤微生物多样性对于维持生态系统生产力和提高碳固存至关重要。全球气温持续上升，但气候变暖如何影响微生物多样性及其固存土壤有机碳（SOC）的能力仍不确定。在此，通过对来自102项研究的251对观测数据进行全球荟萃分析，我们发现，平均而言，变暖使细菌和真菌多样性（以丰富度和香农指数衡量）分别降低了16.0%和19.7%，使土壤有机碳降低了18.1%。随着变暖幅度的增加、实验持续时间的延长以及土壤氮有效性的降低，土壤细菌和真菌多样性对变暖的负面响应变得更加明显。在最坏的气候变暖情景下（2010年至2070年，气温升高3.4°C），预计60年内土壤细菌多样性和真菌多样性将分别降低56%和81%。重要的是，除了变暖对土壤有机碳的直接影响外，变暖导致的微生物多样性下降也导致了土壤有机碳的损失。我们强调，长期变暖可能会大幅降低土壤微生物多样性并减少土壤有机碳固存，加速未来变暖，并突出采取果断行动缓解全球气候变化的迫切需要。
