Arafa Ahmed, Kato Yuka, Matsumoto Chisa, Khairan Paramita, Maeda Saori, Kokubo Yoshihiro
Department of Preventive Cardiology, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, 6-1, Kishibe-Shinmachi, Suita, Osaka, 564-8565, Japan.
Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Beni-Suef University, Beni- Suef, Egypt.
BMC Cardiovasc Disord. 2025 Sep 2;25(1):649. doi: 10.1186/s12872-025-05031-w.
Increased plasma levels of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) serve as a biomarker for heart failure (HF). This study aimed to develop a risk score to predict elevated BNP levels using traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors.
We analyzed data from 2809 Japanese individuals aged ≥ 40 years from the Suita Study, a population-based prospective cohort. All participants underwent follow-ups involving BNP measurements every two years. Developing BNP levels ≥ 100 pg/mL, a potential indicator of HF requiring treatment, was the outcome. Cox regression was applied to calculate hazard ratios for several CVD risk factors associated with developing BNP levels ≥ 100 pg/mL. Within a median follow-up period of 8 years, 339 participants developed BNP levels ≥ 100 pg/mL. The risk factors included older age, heavy smoking, former and heavy alcohol consumption, high blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate < 45 mL/min/1.73 m, CVD history, cardiac murmur, arrhythmia including atrial fibrillation, and left ventricular hypertrophy. The prediction model performed well in terms of discrimination (C-statistics = 0.750) and calibration (p-value for goodness-of-fit > 0.150).
Our findings highlighted several CVD risk factors for BNP levels ≥ 100 pg/mL in the general Japanese population. Lifestyle modifications and regular health check-ups should be applied to reduce HF risk in vulnerable individuals.
B型利钠肽（BNP）血浆水平升高是心力衰竭（HF）的生物标志物。本研究旨在利用传统心血管疾病（CVD）危险因素开发一种风险评分，以预测BNP水平升高。
我们分析了来自须惠研究的2809名年龄≥40岁的日本个体的数据，这是一项基于人群的前瞻性队列研究。所有参与者每两年接受一次随访，包括测量BNP。BNP水平≥100 pg/mL（这是需要治疗的HF的一个潜在指标）作为研究结果。采用Cox回归计算与BNP水平≥100 pg/mL相关的几种CVD危险因素的风险比。在中位随访期8年期间，339名参与者的BNP水平≥100 pg/mL。危险因素包括年龄较大、重度吸烟、既往和重度饮酒、高血压、估计肾小球滤过率<45 mL/min/1.73 m²、CVD病史、心脏杂音、包括心房颤动在内的心律失常以及左心室肥厚。该预测模型在区分度（C统计量=0.750）和校准（拟合优度p值>0.150）方面表现良好。
我们的研究结果突出了日本普通人群中BNP水平≥100 pg/mL的几种CVD危险因素。应采取生活方式干预和定期健康检查，以降低易感个体发生HF的风险。
