Environmental Drivers of Phytoplankton Structure in a Semi-Arid Reservoir.

Artificial reservoirs in arid regions provide unique ecological environments for studying the spatial and functional dynamics of plankton communities under the combined stressors of climate change and anthropogenic activities. This study conducted a systematic investigation of the phytoplankton community structure and its environmental drivers in 17 artificial reservoirs in the Ili region of Xinjiang in August and October 2024. The Ili region is located in the temperate continental arid zone of northwestern China. A total of 209 phytoplankton species were identified, with Bacillariophyta, Chlorophyta, and Cyanobacteria comprising over 92% of the community, indicating an oligarchic dominance pattern. The decoupling between numerical dominance (diatoms) and biomass dominance (cyanobacteria) revealed functional differentiation and ecological complementarity among major taxa. Through multivariate analyses, including Mantel tests, principal component analysis (PCA), and redundancy analysis (RDA), we found that phytoplankton community structures at different ecological levels responded distinctly to environmental gradients. Oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), dissolved oxygen (DO), and mineralization parameters (EC, TDS) were key drivers of morphological operational taxonomic unit (MOTU). In contrast, dominant species (SP) were more responsive to salinity and pH. A seasonal analysis demonstrated significant shifts in correlation structures between summer and autumn, reflecting the regulatory influence of the climate on redox conditions and nutrient solubility. Machine learning using the random forest model effectively identified core taxa (e.g., MOTU1 and SP1) with strong discriminatory power, confirming their potential as bioindicators for water quality assessments and the early warning of ecological shifts. These core taxa exhibited wide spatial distribution and stable dominance, while localized dominant species showed high sensitivity to site-specific environmental conditions. Our findings underscore the need to integrate taxonomic resolution with functional and spatial analyses to reveal ecological response mechanisms in arid-zone reservoirs. This study provides a scientific foundation for environmental monitoring, water resource management, and resilience assessments in climate-sensitive freshwater ecosystems.